Powei down the medium-term weakness seen sugar – white sugar prices – Food Industry
Ignoring the domestic sugar market, the recent record-high impact ICE raw sugar, the benchmark contract since July 13 SR1001 technology platform below, after the way sell into corrections, effective this week, two at one stroke below the 4100 support the formation of Powei downward trend took forward contracts SR1005 main banner, transactions, positions significantly enlarged, and led percentage decliners in the contract. Our analysis, although the consumption of sugar is still high season and the outer disc record highs, but the lack of further positive stimulus with the future of the State Reserve is expected to increase market supply of sugar concerns, Zhengzhou sugar futures more difficult to maintain the 4000 high, medium-term oscillations are still lower requirements, the proposed operation, every technical rebound short 1005 contracts, targets located in 4100-3950.
First of all, this year's sugar supply and demand become more balanced in the early speculation on the price cuts stimulated by the excess of overdraft. Because the lack of further positive stimulus later, together with the general performance of the Consumer season stock market disappointment spread, leading to regression of price rational. Let the old tune of sugar in 2008/2009 crop season production of 12.43 million tons, expected consumption from 13.5 to 13.8 million tons; supply = 1243 +150 of the crop season (last year's carry-over stocks) +70 (import sugar ) -80 (state purchasing and storage reservoir and the Guangxi) = 13.83 million tons. Consumption of this crop season of 1350 tons or less, even taking into account there are 400,000 tons reserve, the balance of underlying supply and demand crop season. Therefore, before we see May as production uncertain, the major push to drastically cut continued speculation on the price, and on May 1 after major Sugar spot prices will be increased to 3800 hurricane advance cases, contracts May 1001 4256,1005 a record high of 13 in the May 14 contract hit a high of 4410 for six months. But by the end of May, the sugar and all of pressing is completed, this year's crop dust settles, the face of the coming peak season consumption, rising rates and growing sales of industrial cut stock, sugar futures are lacking, the impact of previous high of three reactive and back, is the so-called "pushed up in the twilight, in the clear in the open"! We think that is good news because there is no better to change the relative balance between supply and demand data, market concerns if the small increase in production next year, consumption to maintain the current growth rate, the spot price you can maintain more than 3800 (after all, only the cost of sugar 3300)? Long-term futures prices in 4000? 4200 can attract more sugar hedging pressure to increase a firm offer?
From historical experience, in early 2009, the futures price is low, most of the small sugar mill but the lack of hedging options stock active trading channels, only the largest sugar refinery in stock late, but happy to see the big sugar futures, spot high, so that they maximize profits relative. If the new crop season to open juice futures prices at more than 4,000, in the interests of sugar bound to the size before the lock will be a good price. Therefore, I believe, based on sugar interests, is not difficult to understand futures prices fell, the spot price is only slightly lower divergence. After all, much higher than the spot price of futures prices, sugar mills had no need to panic, say stock prices sharply lower if the direct hit on the price of the vertical down, so that the early crop season, in a period of relatively low prices, sugar mills will have no right set of security prices Therefore, instead of sugar in the hope of lower prices continue to attract buying oscillation, so we go to establish hedging positions. In May from the spot after the performance, based on efforts to control the large sugar mills, producing spot price has been maintained in 3650? 3900 interval, the spot market tepid, with the season ending, the spot price down slightly in the last two weeks . We can Liuzhou Electronic Disk can be seen in the spread of this disappointment, the price test of 3700 is also supported. So, from the spot of the performance, the pressure increases, the future will follow the slow falling of prices, to suppress rebound of prices.
Second, we deviate from the objective analysis of the reasons for internal and external disk. From the international market situation, the period of record-high prices is mainly the world's second-largest primary producer of the first two crop season in India to drastically cut imports from major exporting countries into the country caused; plus a rebound in international oil prices led to speculative capital blitz "of biological Energy The concept of "speculation. But the international market, speculation has its great variability, because the cultivated area in India increased by 9% this year, is expected to cut production cycle from the previous year out, yield about 20% this year, the international raw sugar more difficult to break through 20 cents large, investors could rise to fall.
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