Super Bowl 45 Steelers vs Packers Live Stream
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Super Bowl 45 Steelers vs Packers Live Stream
Hello and welcome back for the final time this 2010-11 NFL season. Going back to Week 5, I’ve had a very successful season making picks against the spread: an even 60% correct including totals. My playoffs picks, on the other hand, have been average so far, including a 1 for 2 record in last Sunday’s Conference Championships. Superbowl Sunday will determine, for me anyways, whether or not I hit red or black for this year’s post-season.
When I saw who the NFL’s “final four” were a few Sundays ago, my first thought was how thrilled the execs must be: two teams from the largest markets, and two teams with storied histories and nationwide fan-bases remained the final contenders for Superbowl XLV. Sorry to Jets and Bears fans, but I think that with the Steelers-Packers match-up, the country got the game it wanted. With an ominous labor dispute on the horizon, there are great expectations for this year’s big game. It certainly has the potential to be a memorable one.
Without home field advantage coming into play, I figured the point spread for Superbowl XLV would open at EVEN, or with the Packers giving up 1 point at the most. The Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) set the opening line at Green Bay (-1.5), but few books took their advice. Most set the Pack as 2.5 point favorites, or even 3 point favorites in some spots. Is it a knock against Big Ben and the Steelers? I’m inclined to say no: Green Bay, coming off a string of road wins, is simply the hotter team in the public’s eye. This was reflected in the early action, but things have evened out over the past few days.
The Pick: If Belfort goes for takedowns, he could wear out Silva, as Sonnen did, and then look for a stoppage later in the fight. However, “The Phenom” just is not wired that way. Silva will have some tough moments and then explode, delivering a barrage in the third round to retain his title.
I am more than happy to get the Steelers as an underdog here. Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best young quarterback in the game, and he’s been spectacular this post-season. In this spot though, I have real concerns with how he and Mike McCarthy are going to handle the Pittsburgh defense. With the drama surrounding Jay Cutler getting most of the attention, Rodgers had a very average performance in the latter half of the NFC title game (0 offensive points and a nearly-costly red-zone pick). The Bears provided Pittsburgh’s superior secondary with a game plan. I refuse to assume, as most pundits have, that Green Bay will have the kind of success throwing the ball that they have become accustomed to.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers feature a balanced attack led by – especially if he wins this game – one of the most successful post-season quarterbacks in NFL history. Big Ben has been here twice before and won twice before. He’s 9-3 against the spread in the playoffs (9-1 in his last ten games), and 4-1 when listed as an underdog. The way he’s been coming up with clutch plays this post-season, coupled with the success Rashard Mendenhall running the ball, Pittsburgh +2.5 is where the value bet is (even more so if you can find it at -3). They win this one outright.
The total for Superbowl XLV has bounced around a fair bit since opening at 45. Early action pushed it up as high as 46.5, but it seemed to have settled at 44 after significant action on the UNDE
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In my opinion, this is where the Maurkice Pouncey injury has the most impact. He’s a solid pass-rush blocker, but he’s made a name for himself this year by creating holes up the middle for Mendenhall. With his status looking doubtful for next Sunday, I anticipate Pittsburgh to go with a slightly more pass-heavy attack. Green Bay, as we’ve seen, is certainly going to try and establish their passing game as well. Playing on the fast track indoors, I think the OVER bet has great value as well.
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Super Bowl 45 Steelers vs Packers Live Stream
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