China's grain import and export of the impact on food prices – food, food prices – Food Industry
First, the role of food in international trade
With China's accession to WTO, the gradual liberalization of grain import and export trade, China Food prices Gradually shift from the policy control system of market regulation. Along with raising the level of food trade, the international grain trade impact on domestic food prices are also becoming increasingly clear. Correct grasp of the international food trade on China's grain prices and food security, to play a positive role in international food trade, on the stability of domestic food production, food prices to adjust, maintain food security is of great significance.
Grain Trade in China, its basic task should be to ensure food security. High National Day? 2000 that WTO accession will form a food import and domestic food production and distribution of adjustment as the main structure, grain storage regulation subsidiary balance between grain supply and demand. China's grain self-sufficiency rate has remained at a high level, since 2004, China's net imports of grain sharp growth in 2008 has reached 28.81 million tons, self-sufficiency rate remained at 94%.
Second, import and export volume effects on food prices
Export spot price of wheat On the spot price of grain exports are certain prediction. Increases in exports, domestic supply is often said that short-term surplus, according to supply and demand, food prices will decline to some extent. Imports on the spot price of the explanation is quite obvious, as the spot price changes can not explain why.
Import and export prices of wheat futures
Futures prices of grain exports to the explanatory power is weak, as the futures price movements can not explain why. Imports have a negative effect on the futures price, that increased imports will reduce domestic prices, which is higher than our long-term foreign domestic food prices, the external low-cost food crops into the country involved in price competition, lowering domestic food prices are obvious relationship.
Export Impact on Food Prices Change on food grain exports had a direct impact spot prices, compared to the import factors on the spot price of food is very limited. Spot market prices are significantly reflected in the price system for current supply and demand, increased exports is the oversupply performance. Oversupply, the market price of a buyer's market will be declined. Will curb the increase in exports of food prices coming down further, on price stability play a regulatory role. The foreign grain prices are lower than long-term performance of domestic food prices will continue to export large volumes of food restriction. Food imports are mostly long-term trade, imports a large extent has been previously identified, is the spot market supply and demand of the endogenous variables on the spot market price was limited.
Third, China's grain import and export special phenomenon
Free trade to carry out late, low level of domestic market prices
Before WTO accession, China's grain import and export of small, grain exports are mainly confined to the three northeastern provinces of corn, soybeans and other products. Join the WTO, China has gradually liberalized market regulation, on the one hand, subject to the WTO agreement to increase the impact of China's import quotas; the other hand, the entry of cheap agricultural products abroad is also the result of normal international trade.
In food price system, the reform and opening up the country after the establishment of a contract system for the production and purchase and sale in 1985 ended the policy, the introduction of grain prices "dual system." However, China's grain production remains at a low stage of the market in 2006, China was only 35% of food products, more than half of the food did not enter the circulation of commodities in the field, but used by the farmers themselves, making food prices and food supply and demand can not fully reflect the .
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