The international financial crisis first anniversary of the tide will take some time – the financial crisis, the first anniversary – Printing Industry
Intensified protectionist "exit strategy" still differences
2008 9 15, Wall Street's top investment bank Lehman Brothers came crashing down, began on Wall Street Financial Crisis highlights the destructive power. At that time, no one can say clearly that this "once in a century" financial crisis in the end will last long.
The past year, regardless of the financial markets or the real economy, faster recovery than people think. Distanced the financial crisis yet? Does the world economic recovery, sustainable? Where changes to the world situation? At present it is still hard to conclusions.
Unspeakable end the crisis Experienced two quarters in the unrest, the world's major stock markets in March this year, has begun to rebound in the second quarter of the world's major economies, economic growth, the world economy has shown signs of stabilization for the better.
However, some analysts have warned that the world is facing not only the surface of the recovery operation, the end of the financial crisis is still untold. International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Dominique Strauss – Kahn said, IMF remains the global economy this year, the expected negative growth of 1.4%.
Alerts the global financial markets has not completely removed. While the major banks in the second quarter, the chain has greatly improved performance, but mainly because of changes in accounting standards, bad special treatment and other reasons. U.S. financial institutions to pursue high-risk, high return, short-term incentives still exist, the fundamental question of its financial system has not been resolved.
Present, the overall capital adequacy in the banking system was still inadequate, the field of commercial real estate and credit risk may become a new source, and the "toxic assets" is hanging over the head of sword. Bank of China Vice President Zhu Min said the global banking industry 1.6 trillion of toxic assets are not stripped. These are the banking system into question the sustainability of business growth.
More serious is when the end of the financial crisis, another crisis?? Trade crisis menacing to stage a comeback. According to statistics, this year the anti-dumping, countervailing of new cases over the number last year, most of them related to Chinese products. The first half of this year, China suffered anti-dumping, countervailing, safeguard measures and special safeguard measures, as many as 58 trade remedy investigations, involving more than eight billion U.S. dollars. World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that global trade protectionism is intensified, the global trade volume expected to shrink by 10%. Protectionist winds intensified, to cast a shadow over the economic recovery.
Global economy is facing new variables
When the crisis intensified, governments have taken unconventional monetary policy and increased government spending economic stimulus plan to curb the spread of the crisis. However, as the crisis entered Houban Chang, how to eliminate the economic stimulus plan "side effects", and properly to achieve a smooth "exit strategy" is also related to the future of the global economy.
Information provided under the IMF, as of June this year, 20 members of the Group of crisis and commitment of funds for various economic stimulus plan involves the total size of nearly 12 trillion U.S. dollars. This includes the expansionary monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policy elements.
But these "prescription strength" to bring the same great "side." Among them, save a lot of liquidity into financial markets, thus pushing up inflation expectations; countries run huge financial consequences of the economic costs are significant risks. George Soros that the crisis, both politically and technically, take away liquidity from the economy to save the economy than the injection of liquidity difficulties were greater.
Present, the major developed economies, the Government considers should be maintained over a long period easing policy, prevent double dip more than the reality of preventing economic overheating and important, but in the implementation of the timing and scale of other countries are there certain differences.
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