Construction machinery: a full recovery of investment to stimulate domestic demand is not optimistic – construction machinery, domestic demand – construction machinery industry
Promote investment in fixed assets Construction Machinery Demand Construction machinery is used
Construction General construction machinery, is widely used in construction, water conservancy, electricity, roads, mines, ports and defense engineering. Therefore, demand for construction machinery products and the growth rate and the capital investment and real estate projects has a strong correlation, the industry boom of the increase in fixed asset investment was largely synchronous positive relationship.
2008 since the second half of the global
Financial Crisis to the domestic construction machinery industry to bring no small impact. Followed by the Chinese Government issued a policy to stimulate the economy 4 trillion this year on May 25, the State Council on the fixed assets investment projects adjusted capital ratio, on the whole, and in 2004 provided for fixed asset investment is relatively higher than the minimum capital , in addition to electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloy, coke and other "two high" industry increases, most of the industry is down, and down in the range of 5% to 15%. This can occur leverage increased investment driven, pulling more money into other funds such as loans for fixed asset investment is a great good.
State Department greatly reduced the minimum capital ratio of investment projects, reflecting the sharp decline in imports and exports in the context of national policies to stimulate investment in fixed assets increased to ensure that annual economic growth target to resolve. From the perspective of specific industries, the largest reduction from the ordinary real estate development and railways, roads and other infrastructure construction projects. Decline in the proportion of real estate investment, mainly due to growth in the first half of real estate development and investment is too small, and its stimulating effect on the economy great; railways, highways, ports, shipping proportional decline was mainly due to investment in the first half of 4 trillion place late in local funds, progress of the project than expected.
Pick up significantly in the first half of construction machinery industry, exports continued to slump
Currently down because the state of housing and infrastructure projects in general capital ratio, originally launched as a shortage of funds to suspend the project is expected to be launched ahead of schedule, the normal progress of the delayed construction of the project will be conducted in the next few months this year, fixed-asset investment is expected to continue higher , thereby stimulating the economy rising construction machinery industry. Real estate investment will bring
Concrete Machinery , Tower crane , Truck Crane , Excavators and other machinery products demand, infrastructure investment will bring crane, concrete machinery, excavators,
Loader , Bulldozers and rotary drilling rig and other product demand, investment in the mining industry will bring loaders, excavators, bulldozers and other product demand.
2009 first half sales of major construction machinery products, the trend is gradually slowing down the recovery of the situation obviously. Including excavators, bulldozers, better performance, were down from January's 42.04 percent, 45.64 percent decline in May decreased to 1.67%, 21.58%; forklifts, loaders poor performance, a decline from 46.8% in January, 56.78 % reduced to May's 38.14%, 27.54%, reducing the range of small, slow recovery.
First half of the construction machinery industry recovery, monthly sales fell sharply reduced while the chain growth was mainly due to: on the one hand, 3 to May is the construction machinery industry
Sell Peak; the other hand, total fixed asset investment growth accelerated to speed up investment in fixed assets has brought increased demand for construction machinery products.
2008 mid-after by the international financial crisis, a substantial decline in exports of construction machinery industry, the export downturn first half of 2009 has not improved. 1 ~ May the main construction machinery exports fell to 30%, while exports of Chinese engineering machinery products price advantage still exists, but out of the current worldwide economic downturn also need to pick up, the second half of exports is expected to remain low. 2009, 5 months, excavators, loaders and bulldozers exports decreased substantially 72.63%, 53.88% and 54.55%; in the first quarter fell 50.23% forklift exports.
In the second half by the continued recovery in real estate and infrastructure investment-impact
In the second half, especially in the third quarter is the traditional off-season construction machinery, the relatively good fourth quarter; in the second half of the sales generally account for about 40% of the year. Since the second half of this year to speed up the real estate investment and the continued investment in infrastructure, construction machinery demand will continue to recover. If real estate, infrastructure investment than expected, construction machinery will slow down the recovery process.
Specific varieties of construction machinery quite different. Among them, forklifts, loaders prospects generally. First of all, after several years of rapid development, forklift, loader sales base has been a great year, last year more than 165,000 units, less opportunity for future growth; Second, market competition, major construction machinery enterprises regard the forklift expansion of product mix as an important choice, and now a serious oversupply of capacity loader; Finally, forklift, loader product unit price is low, relatively weak profitability. At present, imports account for excavator apparent domestic consumption of a large proportion of national excavator market prospect.
Bulldozers and cranes are relatively high market concentration, the two varieties, the market share of the first row of the enterprise's market share of more than 50%, which also slightly higher than the cranes bulldozers. Bulldozer sales are relatively stable, rapid growth in recent years mainly due to a substantial increase in exports. While the bulldozers exports decreased greatly, but the domestic market to achieve positive growth driven by investment, annual sales fell slightly. With the gradual restoration of the international market, exports are the next big bulldozer room to grow. Domestic infrastructure construction in full swing to promote the conduct of the needs of truck crane.
Machinery industry recovery has two more adverse factors. First, the international market demand continued malaise. By the financial crisis, foreign demand dropped, our many years of sustained high growth in exports of construction machinery abrupt end. Proportion of export sales account for a large forklifts and bulldozers, the larger the affected level. Exports of construction machinery industry currently accounts for only 10% of total revenue over that much room for future growth; the international market continues to sagging domestic construction machinery will affect the overall recovery.
Second, steel prices high. Iron ore negotiations, gradually drawing to a close, the domestic steel mills eventually accepted Japan and Korea have agreed reduction is more likely. Baosteel has recently adjusted the primary product prices in July 350 to 500 yuan / ton, affected the spot market price 200 yuan / ton. If a larger rate of increase in the second half of steel, would just get rid of expensive machinery inventory cost pressures of the larger enterprises.
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