China's diesel supply surplus situation or a long
The industry believes that, following China's 2009 crude oil imports and refinery output record, along with the domestic refinery output in 2010 continued to increase, China's diesel supply surplus situation or a long time.
China's excess supply of diesel in 2009 will form a lasting situation, as the world's third largest economy, China's crude oil imports and refinery output in the record, but by 2015 the annual crude oil processing volume to increase at least 50 million barrels double-digit rate of growth of the domestic economy can not digest the rapid increase in diesel fuel supply.
2009, China exported 4,507,100 tons of diesel, an increase of 617 percent, the annual total of 1,836,800 tons of diesel imports, down 71%.
China 2010 crude oil refinery plans on processing volume to at least 60 million barrels, their motivation in addition to diesel demand has picked up, there on the demand for naphtha, which is the raw material for petrochemical products.
In addition, China has embarked on a series of large-scale ethylene joint unit set up as a way to reduce imports of petroleum products 50% of the import dependency.
East-West Center (EWC), senior researcher at the Chinese oil market, said Wu Kang, a driving demand, but the key is supply. Fundamentals point to a net excess supply increased. He said that China can not afford to produce more naphtha and only use light oil, and processing of crude oil and other low-cost heavy oil, such as the Middle East to produce more diesel or petrol.
Analysts and traders estimate the scale of the 2010 surplus could double to 12 million barrels a day, enough to supply Vietnam and China, despite the daily consumption of 300 million barrels of diesel fuel remained small in comparison, but considering the once China's largest fuel buyers in Asia, which still reflects a huge change in the trend.
Most of the surplus may be exported to North Asia and Europe, while the local stock and profit margins high tepid performance has forced the refinery to control the capacity utilization of 80% or less.
China's oil price regulations or to make the situation complicated. The approach or to promote the two oil giants Sinopec and China —- diesel oil exports. It is stipulated that, when international oil prices fall below 80 U.S. dollars per barrel, the profit margin calculated in accordance with the normal processing of oil prices. But the current oil price has risen to 85 dollars a barrel.
Chinese government to strive to control the inflation rate below 3% since November 2009 has been vigorously promoting the fuel price increase is not, it squeezed profit margins of domestic refineries. Sinopec fuel sales, a charge officials said that if oil prices remain high, and the government raised fuel prices has been postponed, the supply will be tight. While Sinopec, the profit margin is to determine the refinery utilization or export of primary consideration.
Lower profit margins of domestic fuel sales, or make as refiners lowered utilization as 2005-07, but will also encourage the expansion of exports.
One end of 2008 abolished the tax incentives for diesel and gasoline exports 17% of the value-added tax levied for those who desire to Vietnam, Indonesia and the Middle East state-owned refinery fuel exports provide another motivating factor.
A change in the oil market in 2009. By the financial crisis, China's diesel market once because of combat experience slower growth, but then rebounded in the second half of 2009, aided in the recovery of the export industry. But the rebound in gasoline demand momentum has appeared pale in comparison.
China passenger car sales in 2009 rose by 53%, which pushed China's one stroke the throne of the world's largest car market, and so have more reason to maintain a high refinery capacity utilization.
CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) of Yan Kefeng that from this perspective, 2009 was a year of change. The next few years China will maintain rapid growth in gasoline demand, the government stimulus package of incentives, auto sales are currently being second and third tier cities in penetration, compared to diesel demand greater impetus by the GDP.
East-West Center's Wu Kang is expected, changes in inventories included in the real gasoline demand forecast to grow 6.9% in 2010, down 7.1% in 2009, diesel will rise by 5.9%, compared to less than 1 in 2009 %.
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