High productivity growth and rising aluminum stocks pressure problems – Container Office
Recent years, the domestic currency and orderly exit policy, strike out the real estate policy making, such as copper, aluminum and zinc base metal commodities experienced tremendous pressure, have fallen below long-term average. Shanghai aluminum futures benchmark contract closed at 16,210 yuan week, down 340 yuan, down 2.05%, the minimum has dropped to 15,660 yuan, the price rebounded after sharp fall trend, but the pressure of excess capacity and huge amount of inventory to the aluminum under the repression of up seemingly aluminum market was weak oscillations, on the other hand, there are cost factors reduced the aluminum support to fall.
Tightening of monetary policy on the aluminum price trend is expected to produce some negative effects. This year in March, RMB loans of financial institutions increased 510.7 billion yuan, up 1.38 trillion yuan in 2009 to reduce to reduce the rate of 73%. 3 At the end of the broad money supply (M2) balance of 65 trillion yuan, up 22.50%, the increases are lower than the previous month and the end of 3.03 and 5.18 percentage points. From 2009's bull market, we can see that the rise in non-ferrous metals market is inseparable from the growth of the credit scale. Today, the liberal policy of orderly withdrawal will inevitably shrink liquidity, price movements of aluminum produced negative effects.
High productivity growth and rising aluminum stocks inhibition. 10,000 yuan from the vicinity of Shanghai aluminum V-reversal, the manufacturers to make money from the loss, so have to expand production capacity, to further increase the demand for alumina, has confirmed the year 2010, the additional production capacity of 7.9 million tons of alumina, is not able to confirm The new capacity 5.1 million tons, but can not put into operation in the building also has 2.3 million tons capacity, that in the next one to two years, will gradually have more than 15 million tons of alumina new capacity put into operation one after another. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity to maintain growth.
The current cost of aluminum in the vicinity, drop down is unlikely. Costs constitute the main three domestic large aluminum: aluminum, electricity and labor and accessories. Now the price of alumina in aluminum company reported 3000 yuan / ton, a ton of electrolytic aluminum production needs of nearly 2 tons of alumina, ie alumina cost close to 6,000 yuan / ton; the current price of 0.48 yuan / degree, because electrolysis aluminum companies buy electricity by way of direct access to electricity, compared to the normal tariff concessions in the range of 0.03 to 0.06 yuan / kwh (electricity be different across industries), 1 ton of aluminum ingot production is about 15,000 degrees consumption, power costs about 7200 yuan; artificial and Accessories approximately 3,000. So, do the same projections, the current production of 1 ton of production costs 16,000 yuan. The main contracts Shanghai aluminum price 16100 yuan / ton in the vicinity, with very little cost difference between the distance and cost factors limit the aluminum price to fall.
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