Look at the international situation in 2010 cotton price trend forecast
European countries in the worsening deficits, the debt crisis seriously affected the euro-zone economy Maoyiwending extension, speculative funds, hot money and return to U.S. dollar, U.S. assets, rigid demand for industry, hedge, with some commodities bubble continues to expand, to be mature; the current international situation, capitalists use of the Greek crisis, to borrow pounds lever paranoia hit across the euro and is now continuing depreciation of the dollar a solid 80 front, the U.S. dollar, commodity prices are climbing; yuan was at a loss, the yuan has been fixed "was appreciated."
An appreciation of the yuan pros and cons: 1, RMB appreciation will stimulate the domestic raw material commodity prices rise; 2 will enable the Chinese people to bear the inflation rate, a gradual decline in the wealth of the people; 3 yuan to hold U.S. dollars shrink, long-term to crack down on Chinese goods to foreign exports; China's gains and losses will gradually stabilize the exchange rate, cis of its mutually beneficial situation, "was appreciated."
Second, the United States a means of forcing the RMB appreciation: 1, the use of political means to the Taiwan issue, Tibet, Xinjiang, forced appreciation of the problem; 2, the use of economic theory can invisible imported inflation, by making the crude oil, gold, copper, iron ore, soybeans, cotton, Chinese demand for commodities such as rigid prices in the harvested products, as well as the sale of resources to achieve the manufacturing inflation, forcing the yuan to appreciate the effect of interest rates; 3, the U.S. government policy within the Federal Reserve is to the United States the interests of capitalists, forced the war and the the development of the competitiveness of the U.S. economy is already the United States can not be a "yin and yang face" a; the development of China's strong desire to success is a win-win China-US common ground, while the Yankees as a means to shun its still a profit through capital funds, money, health the money advanced "for its own economics"!
Third, under the current situation of the cotton price trend analysis: soybeans, the United States cotton, Indian cotton for more than 60% of the capitalists in Europe and the United States control over all international grain merchants. In the 09 years of cotton, for example there are rumors Zheshang the initial acquisition of cotton, Louis Dreyfus and other international business layout of Xinjiang's cotton cotton base, spring up all over the acquisition of stimulus wave after wave of private funds, brokers the concerns involved, until the acquisition of end of the high price of cotton to pull up the history channel shock; 2009 11-12 month period of American cotton in China, cotton prices hit new high as 1009, when 17.8 thousand yuan is still 80 cents / lb, a serious deviation from the ratio over the years, ( in 2008 the domestic futures cotton price was 16,500 yuan American cotton 85 cents / lb) Why? Because the international cotton traders selling all of its resources in China's cotton cotton with their cotton price spread occurs only when stimulated Chinese textile enterprises, traders, and the pro-gaze, after more than two months of imports of foreign purchases in China of at least 200 million tons of cotton to a foreign port or about to go to Hong Kong (China quota of 2 million tons).
Into the debt crisis during the Spring Festival of Greece, the euro zone in an emergency, speculative hedge funds to return to the United States, the U.S. dollar, crude oil, gold, copper, cotton is not even a record high, rigid demand for commodities by funding pro-gaze, the U.S. cotton purchasing business in China after the the flow, has raised the U.S. cotton futures prices both for companies and their Chinese partners, sales, more conducive to forcing the Fed to respond to China's yuan revaluation is expected to create inflation in China;
Domestic cotton traders reluctant sellers, concentrated emotion, in this round of frenzied speculation, a strong bull not to buy off the afternoon to buy up the mentality of promoting domestic "passion", the current strength of the domestic with a large textile groups, they are the size of funds textile companies are hoarding a large number of cotton, the cotton on the market for circulation, mainly in the hands of China's cotton business, small businesses such as meters in order to survive under the porridge, cotton companies Xishou psychological weight, stock quotes rising volume a bit in general.
Yarn sales in the current red-wang cases, mills have to first hit after the ship-based models in accounting for the cost of a good back end then orders the purchase price, while high prices to buy enough cotton to pay a single. Downstream yarn market is currently hot in the middle and lower reaches of this madness there is also a large number of yarn dealers, there is the strength of the cotton weaving factory stock alarming number, especially in Jiangsu province, Zhejiang region, Guangdong province, those non-textile industry of hot money , crazy hoarding yarn, recently said to have a merchant ship 10,000 tons a day viscose, the recent speculation will be completed the sale of goods as these speculators may come to an end.
Domestic industry chain directly to the cotton price increase in the cost transferred to the downstream business years ago, cotton, downstream textile factory in March after promising the traditional peak season, from the years after the textile enterprises in the form of succession started with the purchase of cotton did not begin to start small businesses procurement of cotton operation, is now like a copper plant to buy cotton, buy copper rods are cash-settled, the lower the cost of sales terminals fabric, if the sales of copper enameled wire, like credit patterns.
It is necessary for appreciation of the renminbi, China's exports will inevitably be suppressed stimulus policies in China, not out of the same time, downstream manufacturers can still meet the rising costs of normal operation, the domestic cotton price will still maintain the current pattern of high volatility in the spot cotton 15000-16500 yuan shock; if the period of cotton price reached 17,500 yuan or more, that companies with domestic cotton, textile enterprises spread over 4,000 yuan, a huge difference sufficient to attract commercial hedging the spot, this a few years later, to stop 17,000 yuan on the Since the spot cotton business, spinning enterprises risk hedging constraints. If China increases interest rates to adjust monetary policy, the downstream business because of escalating costs proudly difficult time, or even stop production, the downstream yarn fabric prices down, purchase with caution when the cotton price will enter a downward spiral, do not rule out the possibility of test a low 14,000 yuan.
I am an expert from Chinese Manufacturers, usually analyzes all kind of industries situation, such as cartoon boxer shorts , c ring underwear.
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