Indicates that the risk of inflation pressure of RMB appreciation
Although the August CPI, PPI data has not been announced, but the decline trend narrow almost certain. In addition to the asset bubble in stock and property markets, the recent domestic water, electricity, gas and other public goods prices, raw material price increases pressure, led by pork and eggs rising agricultural prices, the market rose again on inflation concerns . To this end, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document had four consecutive times, to maintain price stability and promote the National Day to ensure a high degree. Although inflation is not yet entered into the central policy-making level, but the policy implementation of the sector is still hard to secretly relieved, and people on inflation expectations rise.
In fact, the current RMB exchange rate movements can also be observed as a window on domestic inflation. At the recent trend of weak U.S. dollar under the pressure of RMB appreciation is also once again highlighted. China Foreign Exchange Trade Center released data show that 7, the interbank foreign exchange market, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.8305, slightly higher than the previous trading day to go up 5 basis points. Inquiry system tray offer the highest reach 6.8292 yuan, which has been in the last two trading days of the offer a second breakthrough in the important psychological barrier, and hit an intraday high since early June. Is based on the expected appreciation, 7 overseas non-deliverable market (NDF) renminbi against the U.S. dollar is also quick to go up, 1-year NDF quotes in the 6.7620-6.7680 dollars, compared with up hundreds of points the previous day's closing price.
Increased pressure on RMB appreciation and the current global economic recovery, the overall situation for the better and the steady rise of China's exports are closely related. China in the first half economic recovery situation can be described as thriving in the global 1-June GDP growth reached 7.1% in the second quarter is up 7.9%. 7-8 months more since the economic indicators show that China's industrial production picking up further uncertainty, "troika" in the worst of the doldrums after the export has begun to shift from the slow recovery. China's exports from January to July of this year fell 22%, but the chain has been recovered for 5 consecutive months, and in July the month but is an increase of 10.4% compared with the latest information disclosed by the Customs Department showed that exports in August are likely to remain up narrowing trend in the improvement of the chain increased. In fact, recent Wenzhou, the Pearl River Delta appeared in "labor shortage" can be seen in the global economic recovery to a good situation, the coastal areas of foreign trade and export orders began to increase significantly.
Round as external demand is shrinking China's exports and the main cause of economic decline, and now the global economic recovery continues to improve, China's export trade will continue to rise, the pressure of RMB appreciation would be difficult to avoid the slow appreciation of the RMB is also available in the second half of the This will be the first half of "Dark Ming steady devaluation" of the situation in sharp contrast.
In our view, the recent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to increase the release of the global economy to improve, China's exports improved signal. Once the real stabilizing the global economic recovery, exports of China's economic growth engine will start up again, significant increases in foreign reserve would increase domestic money supply, the inflation of market liquidity. On the other hand, "China" will enable the international market due to demand continued to play "what up what China buys, sell what China or any" pattern of imported inflation and upward pressure on domestic prices, combined, will make China the new round of inflation in an atmosphere, it is not alarmist.
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