Dynamic analysis of the market in June DOP
Dragon Boat Festival Before the holiday, as many market participants that the market for almost hit bottom, start position is opened at the situation around the DOP turnover have improved since then, finally out of the domestic DOP Yindie access, local prices slightly higher. But how long can really rally round the market there are some differences in mentality, who bullish bearish. Therefore, the author's good will the recent bad news there is little analysis for your reference. <<<For more exciting Click here
First, the octanol supply two messages of concern:
Message 1. Qilu Petrochemical upstream propylene cracker Compressor Fault repair, expected by the end of May will be returned to the compressor. Qilu Petrochemical Oxo plant, therefore no supply of raw materials, driving time is expected to be postponed until six months early.
Message 2. According to Chinese Customs statistics, from January to April 2009, China's imports 156,306 tons octanol, compared to 75,436 tons a year earlier, an increase of 80,870 tons, growth of 107%.
Positive negative factors was an, but octanol-the-shelf in the end do? Qilu Petrochemical from April to mid-June to mid-parking meter, the octanol loss nearly 4 million tons, even including the Northeast in Oil Company's low-load operation of the octanol device, the domestic final gaps no more than 5 million tons; but octanol supplementary imports to domestic supply nearly 80,000 tons in volume, offset between the two. There are at least 3 million tons of octanol surplus. But I'm told that this part of the goods in a small number of DOP plant as the main buyer, but the broker is holding much. Thus, while June is still relatively abundant supply of octanol, but focused on a small amount of DOP plant, while in many factories DOP basic goods used to prepare mid-May, so part of the DOP plant is there too few octanol supply situation. Therefore, the expected short term, the overall stock octanol Although there are many goods can be sold relatively limited.
Secondly, DOP sources of imports also pay attention to two sources:
Message 1. As of May 22, Zhangjiagang regional DOP less than 6,000 tons of inventory, of which at least 3,000 tons of high cost for the primary providers of goods, in late April has arrived in Zhangjiagang and entertained. It can now sell goods Zhangjiagang limited.
Information on DOP 2.6 external disk arrival as follows: 6000-7000 tons of DOP is expected in late May early June arrived. In addition, international brokers heard nearly 3,000 tons of still holding the cargo in May, but due to the high cost of yet Sell To the domestic.
All the same bad news good one, with the increase of buyers gradually Jiancang in the short term less than 9,000 yuan Zhangjiagang / tons of low-cost sources disappeared, and with the consumption of nearly a month, the port can sell stocks already low, this is a sure support will be DOP. But from the late arrival of imported DOP amount of view, in June imports Zhangjiagang region is still relatively abundant stocks. Therefore, in early June, due to low inventory can be sold, the market fell Zhangjiagang regional imports unlikely. However, in late June, with the clearance of imported goods after another, DOP There may be some pressure on the supply.
Again, poor downstream demand, DOP difficult to power up. DOP
5-6 months to set the traditional low season, in addition to some Footwear Industry, the other downstream, such as artificial leather, film, PVC Soft plastic etc. Order poor, DOP amplification performance of aggregate demand has not yet, is expected in June, the downstream market demand is still hard to be strong support for DOP.
Finally, DOP costs are still high, the market has some support on the DOP. Imports, the current market cost of the flow of imported goods is still high (1100-1165 U.S. dollars / ton), while the cost of the late arrival of imported goods concentrated in the 1080-1090 U.S. dollars / ton (equivalent to 9350 yuan / ton), In 1130-1140 the cost of a few U.S. dollars / ton, the cost is still high. DOP factories, as before the Dragon Boat Festival, octanol lowest position in the 8300 yuan / ton (delivered) about the use of Phthalic anhydride To 7,300 yuan / ton (delivered) basis, DOP cost at least 8,800 yuan / ton, costs more. Intermediaries, the majority of brokers in the 8800-9000 yuan / ton price Jiancang. In summary, the mainstream market DOP cost 8,800 yuan / tons. To May 27 the spot price of 9100 yuan / ton as, Should the latter part of DOP market down, it will face resistance at a certain cost.
Summary, in June, due to ample supply and lower demand for flat, DOP continue to face downward pressure, but the average cost of DOP remained high, the price Should the cut, the decline will be limited. Therefore, I believe that short-term stable correction DOP still mainly limited ups and downs. Neither situation stabilized before the Dragon Boat Festival marks using borrowed, it does not necessarily mean the market will therefore take the broad road.
I am an expert from China Crafts Suppliers, usually analyzes all kind of industries situation, such as bell indoor bicycle , chopper style bicycles.
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