Cautious response to avian influenza Quotes
If large outbreak of avian flu, it is bound to slaughter tens of thousands of poultry to prevent the spread of the epidemic outbreak of avian flu at the same time will cause the national disruption of international trade of poultry products, which seriously hindered the development of aquaculture industry, aquaculture industry to feed and cause substantially reduced demand, which will have a great meal market, the adverse effects. From the view of the history of the last decade the incidence of avian flu 5 times larger, its impact on the bean futures market is slightly different.
December 1997, the Hong Kong outbreak of avian flu, then soybean meal prices in the range of 30 U.S. dollars / short ton about the region oscillation range from 220-200 down to 200-180, then the price of inertia decreased, indicating that this negative theme in the bear market there amplification effect.
December 2, 1999, the global prevalence of avian influenza, CBOT soybean prices all the way from the beginning of the 480 down to 460 near the line, but picked up again at the end to close to 480, while soybean prices fell from 157 to 145 in the vicinity.
May 18, 2001, another outbreak of bird flu in Hong Kong, south China's soybean price declines to 100 yuan / ton, down from 1700 to 1600 below the international market and soybean meal prices were supported at 155, sustained oscillations in the uplink.
March 2003, the Netherlands the most extensive outbreak spread of avian flu, CBOT prices from 570 down to 540-550 near the front line, down in about 20-30 cents, but almost no response to soybean meal prices are still 180 – 170 range order.
December 2003 -2,004 years in March, the Asian outbreak of avian flu, but the opening of the low price of only way to respond, followed by supply and demand tension of the master of the price to make up the prices, until the record high.
Sum up the above analysis, we can find: first, the bird flu impact on the bean market is very short, and psychological aspects of avian flu on the market impact is far greater than its actual impact on the market. In other words, the futures market is expected to reflect the message has a very strong amplification. Therefore, in a bear market, similar to the avian flu bad news will prompt investors to panic, regardless of the cost to be settled out, resulting in decline of prices. Second, the bird flu, after all, an unexpected incident, its soybean market is short of supply and demand trends that determine the main cause of soybean. Short-term emergencies only change the trend, but the final price would still come back on within the law led to long-term trend in. In recent years, from the global outbreak of bird flu in several cases, although the short-term prices of soybean and soybean meal down, but the epidemic is over, back on the price before the location of the outbreak. The reason is that, although the avian influenza epidemic period in soybean meal demand and prices have fallen dramatically, but once the epidemic in the past, aquaculture and animal feed industry would produce a very strong recovery of growth, a sharp increase in soybean meal demand, thereby driving on a price surge.
In conclusion, the avian flu on the market of beans mainly short-term. Bird flu in the bear market which will produce strong amplification, so that market prices collapsed beans; but the market in a bull market and finishing among the avian influenza is not very large. Therefore suggest that investors, investors in determining avian influenza on the impact of beans on the price when the market in which to first look at the situation, to cautious attitude towards the current market.
I am China Products writer, reports some information about alpha lipoic acid benefit , alkaline diet foods.
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