Analysis: World Economy "critical care" when wake up?
Recently, the world has played on the world economy in the "critically ill patients," the joint rescue. These dazzling, dizzying.
First Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling announced a 30 billion U.S. dollars of stimulus package, to help needy families through tax cuts and to stimulate more consumption. Then the U.S. government's decision to the world's second largest bank in the United States Citibank inject 20 billion U.S. dollars, while high-risk assets for the Bank to provide 306 billion U.S. dollars in guarantees. Earlier, the German government has announced a 50 billion euros of stimulus plan, the French government put forward plans for 42 billion euros, of which 22 billion euros earmarked for support of SMEs. Now pass the EU will introduce a new stimulus package, according to the German government revealed the scale of the project is 1300 million euros. In response to the current economic crisis, the EU new member states might loosen the budget deficit not exceed 3% of its gross domestic product requirements. In addition, the U.S. President-elect Obama's aides are preparing to scale from 500 to 700 billion U.S. dollars of stimulus to Obama took office, he can begin to implement. Asia-Pacific summit leaders also pledged to joint action, tide over the crisis.
A new round of rescue operations is mainly due to the world economy this "critical patient" of the situation continued to deteriorate. More than one month ago, many international agencies and experts that the world economic recession will not occur. However, the cruel reality has forced the World Bank, IMF and other international organizations, and various economic research institutes lowered the forecast on economic development. Be regarded as "rich club" economies Cooperation The latest OECD data show that the 3rd quarter of this year, members of the Organization of the economy the first time in 7 years a negative growth of 0.1%. 4th quarter of this year was negative 1.4%, including a negative 2.8% in the U.S., Eurozone and Japan each negative 1%. The organization predicted that economic growth next year will be members of negative 0.3%, including a negative 0.9% in the United States, the euro zone 0.5%. Accordingly, the developed countries, the economy has entered a recession. This is the first time in recent decades such a situation.
International Monetary Fund's latest projections indicate that in 2009 the world economy to increase by only 2.2%, and generally accepted standards, an increase of less than 3% would mean that the world economy into recession. Munich Institute for Economic Research on the European entrepreneurs in the economic sentiment index survey shows that entrepreneurs on the current situation and the next 6 months, confidence in the economic boom is the lowest in 20 years. Germany's central bank forecasts economic growth will be negative next year, Germany 1%, into the most serious since the 1949 recession. The International Monetary Fund predicted the UK economy next year will be negative growth of 1.3%. German Chancellor Angela Merkel says with resignation that next year will be the "bad news of the year."
Lead to "bad news continued," The immediate cause of the financial crisis in the United States, while the financial crisis is a direct injury to the world economy, the nerve center of the banking system. Banking system does not work, but also affect the real economy and people's consumption behavior, chiefly automobile industry. U.S. auto companies are waiting for government assistance; Germany's Mercedes-Benz has decided to stop production on Dec. 1 from 1 month, BMW's production will fall 10 percent next year, Opel has to apply for government help. At the same time, the world's steel production this year dropped by 12.4% in October. The affected industry is snowball snowballing. This weak demand has become the major crux of an economic recession. OECD predicts euro zone next year, the unemployment rate will reach 7.8 percent.
However, it is now more concerned that a recession when the bottom of the world economy this "critical patient" when we can wake up. Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz believes that we have no reason to believe that the crisis has bottomed out, because the stock market and economic decoupling. Beyond a reasonable doubt that we will face in the past 25 years, the most serious recession. European Central Bank governing Nowotny believes that the second half of next year will see hope, because national financial measures will be effective. But financial measures not sufficient to overcome the economic recession, fiscal measures needed to overcome the recession. Most research institutions that the world economy to recover until 2010. However, some scholars pointed out, governments have taken a lot of intervention, the crisis caused by "pain" will reduce, but the recovery will take longer. World Bank President Robert Zoellick made, as rescue measures adopted by many countries, the money has flooded the financial markets are, so we must guard against creating new bubbles. At this stage should be the normal business activities mainly to provide adequate short-term funds.
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