Fuyao: expects gross margins in 2010 will gradually decline
Quarterly Bulletin, 2009, 3, shows that from January to September 2009, the company achieved operating income of 4.144 billion yuan, down 6.42% year on year; the owner of the net profit attributable to parent company 618 million yuan, up 1.39%, EPS was 0.31 yuan. Three quarters of the public
Division operating income of 1.597 billion yuan, up 4.39%, 7.39% increase in the chain; net profit attributable to parent company 397 million yuan owner, an increase of 134.51%, EPS was 0.20 yuan.
Company Q3 consolidated gross margin increased by 3.40 percentage points higher than Central. 3-quarter gross margin the company's products continue to rise, gross margins were 45.26%, up 14.44 percent year on year, with two quarter rose 3.40 percent, gross margin was mainly attributable to lower gross profit margins the company to adjust the float construction glass business to a higher gross profit margins of its automotive glass up, while the main raw material heavy oil product prices fell from 2 million in the quarter 3,187 / ton, down to three quarters of 3,147 yuan / ton. 3 quarter, the company's management expense ratio increased 1.19 percentage points year on year, mainly due to the company's strategic transformation of long-term depreciation of fixed assets and related amortization of deferred expenses due to enter the management costs.
Expects 2010 gross margin will gradually decline. First half of 2009, exports accounted for the company main business income accounted for 28.22%, up 0.72 percentage points.
June 2009, July, August, laminated safety glass for vehicles up export growth rate was -7.21%, -0.32%, 9.12%, showing rapid warming of the situation; vehicle safety glass steel export growth year on year, respectively was -35.23%, -21.41%, -20.55%, exports pick up slowly. We expect the export performance of the company contribution may need to wait until Q2 2010. Judge for the domestic auto industry, we expect vehicle sales in 2010 will remain at 15% -20% and stable performance for the company to provide support.
From raw material price trends, soda ash (cost accounted more than 20%) and relatively stable prices, the industry is excess capacity, the further pick up if the real estate market will rebound may cause the price of soda ash; heavy oil (30% more than the cost proportion ) prices will rise as crude oil prices rise. Taking into account the macro-economic rebound and inflation caused by rising commodity prices, we expect our gross margins in 2010 will gradually decline.
Expected net profit attributable to parent company owners increase of 302.25 percent year on year. We expect the company to achieve 2009 revenues of 5.727 billion yuan, up 0.17%; net profit attributable to parent company owners 990 million, an increase of 302.25%.
Earnings forecasts, investment recommendations and risk. Expects annual EPS were 0.49 2009,2010,2011 yuan, 0.53 yuan, 0.49 yuan, to Oct. 26 closing price of 11.71 yuan terms, the dynamic 2009 P / E is 23.70 times, P / B is 6.04 times, taking into account the company's long-term development prospects and the expected improvement in export, the maintenance of investment grade holdings, the company's risk is primarily reflected in the prices of raw materials decreased profitability due to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the uncertainty of export risk the sustainability of lower vehicle demand risk.
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