Is expected to increase 21.5 percent this year, automobile market is still boomi
The rapid growth in the automotive market will appear in two stages. Expert analysis, the rapid development of China's auto market will be relatively long period. China's auto market the first high-speed growth period from 2001 to thousands of people from 4.8 to 2008 years, thousands of people 21 and lasted 8 years; China's auto market is expected to speed development period lasted a second will not be too short.
According to the State Information Center's latest study, expected in 2010 the growth rate of China's auto market to 17%, of which the growth rate of passenger car market will reach 21.5%. The market will be 23 this year, a major increment of the regional automobile market, but the next 10 years, 23 the market will continue to dominate the market of China's auto market.
March 12, the State Information Center Department of Information Resources Xu Changming, director of the Beijing Asian Games Village Auto Market Information conference that, according to the State Information Center's latest study, expected in 2010 China's auto market growth rate of 17%, while passenger-car market the growth rate will reach 21.5%.
Xu Changming, analysts say China's auto market to make predictions as accurately as possible need to consider two factors, one year, a greater impact on the automotive market, the policy of what the changes; second is how this year's macro-economic situation.
Xu Changming, the analysis of the acquisition rate of increase of the impact of the automotive market this year, said that last year's purchase of tax changes on the pulling effect of the automotive market significantly, to be launched immediately after the introduction of the market; this year, the acquisition rate of increase of 2.5 percentage points on the negative effects of the automotive market may be very is limited. Because the market is not easy to start, but once the market started, even if there is some negative impact, nor will it soon be "cool." It's like burning fire to throw on a pot of water on the fire will not have a big impact.
Xu Chang-ming in the analysis will be introduced this year, the favorable policy of the positive impact of the automobile market, said trade-in the maximum subsidy amount from 6,000 yuan to 1.8 million new policies and to promote and regulate the introduction of automobile credit consumption policy will support the This year's auto market to maintain at a high level.
Xu Changming, further analysis that the positive role of policy more marked in the automobile market to maintain the existing high level of non-reduced, high-growth auto market also depends on the macro-economic and healthy development. Countries have been identified this year, to continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy is appropriate to promote the rapid development of China's auto market the fundamental driving force; and good macroeconomic policies and the healthy development of combination punches to decide China's auto market will maintain a long-term, sustained growth. State Information Center predicted that GDP growth rate was 9.5%, and 9% ~ 10% of the GDP growth rate is precisely the most conducive to the healthy development of the automotive industry.
XU Chang-ming, on the world automobile market development path of the study found that the rapid growth of the automotive market will appear in two stages. The first period of rapid growth for the thousands of people to retain the amount of 5 to 20 when the auto market at this time the average annual growth rate of 30%, lasting at least five years; the second period of rapid growth in the amount of 20 ~ 100 thousand people to retain vehicles, the average annual growth rate of 20%, lasting at least 10 years. In fact, a big gap between the national income, the rapid development of China's auto market will be relatively long period. China's auto market the first high-speed growth period from 2001 to thousands of people from 4.8 to 2008 years, thousands of people 21 and lasted 8 years; China's auto market is expected to speed development period lasted a second will not be too short.
XU Chang-ming, 23 market will be a major automobile market this year, incremental area, and the next 10 years, 23 the market will continue to dominate the market of China's auto market. Manufacturers should strengthen its market consumption characteristics of 23 studies, 23 in the market to speed up the construction of sales network. In the future, if the population has not increased noticeably, to maintain immediate decline in sales is not already easy, can no longer count on a big market, sales continued to increase. The total population, accounted for 60% of the third line the size of the population of the huge demand for its vehicles will have a long-term, a large number of potential demand, it is bound to be a longer period of China's future market, the largest increment.
Xu Changming judge said that since the first quarter of last year, the base of the lower vehicle sales this year, a quarter of the national passenger car market, up to an additional 90 million vehicles; while the second quarter of last year, after the rapid growth of sales, a high base, so even after the second quarter of this year, a monthly increase of 4 million units, throughout the year to grow by around 1.6 million. Accordingly, the size of the automotive market this year will be more than 16 million, an increase of 17% or so. Among them, (narrowly) passenger car market of about 10.5 million, an increase of approximately 21.5%; commercial vehicle market size of approximately 3.36 million; slightly off the market size of approximately 2.14 million.
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