High price Haipu Rui Listing: When a brother or a break?
148 Meta Refresh A record share issue price of Hai Purui 6 landing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange SME board, the bio-pharmaceutical upstart in the end the impact of small plates is the first high stock market directly or break? Differ greatly between institutions, capital securities even Haipu Rui a reasonable price cut off set down the middle from 61.2 to 76.5 yuan.
Although most of the brokers on the Hai Purui fundamentals to a higher rating, but for its issue price of 148 yuan, they have many reservations. States securities that Haipu Rui reasonable price should be 61.2 to 76.5 yuan. Taking into account the company's industry segments in which its industry position, and growth factors, its PE 2010 between 20 to 25 times more appropriate. TX care that a reasonable price from 109.5 to 127.8 yuan. AJ Securities believes that the fair value range of 90 to 110.
However, some analysts are more recognized Hai Purui high premium. Dongxing Securities, said Zhang Jingdong, in view of Hai Purui fundamentals, the first day of opening of new shares, even if the 50% increase in the share price will break through 200 yuan / share, as a higher offer is possible here.
High premium for the Hai Purui concerns, in fact, due to concerns about its growth potential. Hai Purui prospectus shows that the company is the leading exports of heparin API, but also withstand "the only one obtained U.S. FDA certification of heparin raw material drug production enterprise" of the title, which is support the company's high valuation basis . However, recent media do have a lot of questions this statement with the facts, there is quoted Biochemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association as saying the Secretary-General Xu Kangsheng "not realistic." In addition to Haipu Rui, the current number of heparin API manufacturer has received FDA certification. Press this prospectus by calling the telephone inquiries to stay, but no one answered the other phone has.
Investors worried there, Hai Purui the main product of heparin API for growth. Hai Purui the prospectus of the heparin API description of the market is "the world's heparin API 2006, sales from 400 million to five hundred million U.S. dollars between 2008 annual sales reached 800 million U.S. dollars, during the period 2006 to 2008, the average annual compound growth rate of more than 41.42%. " Haipu Rui said, mainly because of its downstream products, the rapid expansion of heparin drug market. However, heparin is described in the prospectus of room to grow the drug heparin API is far less than the "Global sales of heparin drug market in 2006 was 4.915 billion U.S. dollars, 2008 was 5.99 billion U.S. dollars, the annual compound growth rate of 10.40% ; expected 2012 sales of heparin drugs will reach 9.102 billion U.S. dollars, the annual compound growth rate projected at 11.03%. " That is, if domestic heparin API manufacturer has maintained optimism as Hai Purui further positive expansion, then the current market for high profit margins will become a highly competitive Red Sea.
In addition, the more a single source customers, product mix is also quite a risk. Fortune Securities research report said the drug company as a supplier of raw heparin, the high concentration of downstream industry, sales of the top three customers accounting for more than 85%. The relative concentration of large customers for its product market limited the bargaining power of the company, company performance depends to a risk of dependence on big clients, and a single product category, therefore a lower ability to resist risks.
Who pushed Hai Purui shares? Goldman Sachs, one figure has appeared. Hai Purui prospectus shows the company's third-largest shareholder GSPharma, 4500 holding company shares, accounting for 12.5%, the average holding cost of about 1.57 yuan / share. The GSPharma system wholly owned subsidiary of The Goldman Sachs Group, to the issue price of 148 yuan, Goldman Sachs will float profit 6.589 billion yuan.
This, Beijing Institute of Technology economics professor, said Hu Xingdou, domestic investors generally like Goldman Sachs and other international investment banks have a deification of thinking, superstition, their ideas, promising business as long as they are blindly follow the trend.
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