Glass Price Trend Of Rapid Increase Opportunities To Bring
Yesterday, engaged in sales of glass products has been 9 years of horse Tan told Business Daily reporters, “recently read a bit, glass price as riding on a rocket, bass bass Shangcuan.” Industry observers of the view that the recent price rise of glass
The main benefit from the real estate market recovery, and capacity before the glass is too severe atrophy. Glass prices, improve the overall prosperity of the industry level, the resulting cyclical investment opportunities.
Glass price inflation over the past month
“To say that the glass prices, this year has been a wave of 3-5 months, but the past month, the price increases too quickly, do not understand the reasons.” In this line have been grinding on for 9 years Ma Tan yesterday with Chinese Commercial News reporters Xian Liao and Shi Tiqi, “do not know if this is coincidence, or on behalf of a new boom cycle, do not know how long it can last.”
According to Ma Tan introduction, where he now glass Guapai Jia is 2317 yuan / box, the price is already very close to the glass industry in the past the peak of the price boom, and in the beginning of this year, this price is only 1036 yuan / case.
Chinese Commercial News reporters Diao Cha and Hou Faxian, when the highest price of glass products in 2007, when the transaction on the glass in East China is 2,400 yuan / case, the highest price in the country.
Industry observers believe that the glass price retaliatory capacity planning is one of the main rise, but because of capacity planning, leaving the glass industry since 2004 formed the demand gap, and thus the price of its follow-up to a larger space corresponding . However, another industry speculation from a cost point of view, this price rise may not exceed the glass industry boom two years ago, the peak level of prices.
Investment securities in the glass industry analyst, said Li Fan, since the beginning of the glass industry to benefit from the favorable large-scale production stop and reduction factors and distributors to add low-inventory procurement activities to promote the glass price from the beginning of 1200 yuan / ton level of rapid reaction . Late into the second quarter, the domestic real estate investment has resumed in some areas, to promote the glass demand continues to rise in June China’s glass production reached 48.75 million boxes, close to the highest monthly production level.
Li Fan, with 9-10 months of this year sales of glass into the season, is expected to glass monthly domestic sales may exceed the 2007 high point of the glass parts of the short-term price may be beyond the stage before the high point.
But Li Fan also said heavy oil and soda ash from the necessary raw materials such as glass manufacturing cost (heavy oil and soda ash glass accounted for 60% of the total cost ratio), it seems, because their prices level off by the end of 2007 were still 10% and 30% of the gap, expected by the end of the glass to the final price level will not exceed the 2007 high point.
United Securities glass and glass products industry analyst Zhou Huan argued that the third quarter will be a serious shortage of Glass, together with manufacturers and dealers may store goods, expected prices will continue to rise, most likely break the 2007 high point.
Strong recovery in real estate prices push higher
Public information, in the second quarter pre-tax profit of the glass industry achieved a total of 86.71 million yuan, successfully emerged since the second quarter of 2008, three consecutive quarters of losses.
Analysts believe that, in addition to capacity planning the formation of the huge demand for glass products, factors, the strong recovery in the first half of the real estate market pushed up the glass on the role of prices is more important.
This year, with real estate sales rebound caused rapid decrease inventory, developers gradually accelerated the construction of the project construction progress, commercial real estate area of growth in the first half of a significant rebound.
Since more than 70% of the field of flat glass used in construction, and post-installation phase in construction, commercial real estate area, a significant increase in driving strong demand for glass to the end of the beginning of this year, more than 20% of the production shutdown, the new capacity is too small make the existing glass production capacity can not meet demand, leading to rising glass prices this year, and began to increase significantly from July to increase (now the average price has risen to 80-85 dollars / weight of box), higher than the lowest 50 % or more.
Zhou Huan believes that this year, completed area of commercial housing growth rate was faster than the growth rate of glass production, the key enterprises from the sales rate and inventory situation, the existing production capacity has been playing, indicating that the glass industry since 2004, marked the first time The supply gap is the main driving force of prices.
Li Fan of the view that the glass industry is now back into the business cycle in the early stages. “From the gross margin and profitability analysis unit, the second quarter of 2009, only 11.5% of the industry’s gross profit margin, profit per unit weight case is only 0.6 yuan, therefore, the overall profitability of the current industry cycle changes in the level of early stage . “Li Fan said.
Li Fan the view that the glass industry needs to be further strong earnings continues to improve and stop before the cut line to achieve a reasonable and orderly resumption of production.
Third-quarter prices will continue to rise
Glass speed up the current rise and can not be renewed? Able for how long?
Market observers believe that because there is a big gap between supply and demand, coupled with the real estate market activity, so the glass industry, the current price momentum can continue, “at least a quarter of a Sustainable Future.”
Zhou Huan that because real estate construction and new construction area until the fourth quarter of 2009, will maintain high growth, it is expected that the fourth quarter of this year completed before the area of commercial housing will maintain a rapid growth in the full year, growth may reach 20% Glass is still in short supply; And because the glass industry most complex production lines going to start the fourth quarter, three quarters of the glass may be a serious shortage, expected prices will continue to rise, breaking the 2007 high point.
“The current inventory of glass manufacturers and distributors are relatively low, once the dealer is expected to turn up the glass price will continue to store goods, the prices could be pushed further.” Zhou Huan of the Chinese Commercial News reporter Biao Shi.
Zhou Huan-expected fourth quarter of this year, with the capacity to fully release, the glass may stop rising price trend. If the demand in 2010 can maintain the 10% growth in new capacity is small (second half of 2009 glass business investment unlikely fever), to maintain balance between supply and demand, the price without incurring a substantial drop of glass.
It is reported that the price of float glass is close to the highest level in 2008, but the main fuel – heavy oil, soda ash prices are relatively low, so the glass industry of the advantages of enterprise gross margins can reach 40%.
Li Fan that, due to the sale of the glass industry, most of the manufacturers than expected, “expected that the current cut-off the production line will resume production in the second half to speed up the process. Under glass production line the fastest recovery time of 2 months or so production projections, We expect the fourth quarter of this year after the resumption of production line pressure are obvious. then glass pricing may be subject to callback. If you consider the discontinued product line of complex products, we expect the end of this year glass pricing may be the basic price of the current flat. ”
If the above inference consistent with future trends, then the horse at least one quarter of the Tan have a good day.
I am Cheap On Sales writer, reports some information about syma s006 , remote control toy helicopters.
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