Pharmaceutical First Warm Spring Vitamin Attempting To Use Force On The Albatron
In late June, the Ninth World Pharmaceutical raw materials China Exhibition (CPhI & ICSE China 2009) held in Shanghai. Large concern for the market API Species, we believe that the recent still has good investment opportunities. Downstream to complete the inventory, demand is gradually recovering drug price increases of raw materials to promote the part of the motivation. We believe that this trend will last a long time, there is now some kind of pharmaceutical raw materials better investment opportunities.
Description: On the 2008 fourth quarter and 2009 first quarter, a summary of bulk drugs industries. As the economic crisis in 2008 led to the apparent global demand for raw materials to reduce drug. Demand reduction includes two aspects: 1) increased downstream firms worried about the crisis, shrink the scale of production, reduce inventory and increase cash reserves; 2) downstream to reduce real consumption, such as pharmaceuticals, Food , Diet (vitamin effect) decline in demand, affecting the demand for bulk drugs. We believe that the main reason is to lower the inventory process, resulting in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 2009 a quarter of vitamins and other products, decline in apparent demand. Premix business information from some perspective, after the Spring Festival is still underemployed, but in May, started significantly increased the demand for rapid recovery of the vitamin. Downstream to the inventory of time than our previous estimate of approximately 2 months.
Sentiment warming. From a number of corporate executives and Sell Staff communication situation, the overall situation of the second half of optimistic expectations. Better than the first half of the lower orders, production and business confidence is also apparent recovery. We believe that the business environment in the second half of this year, can not reproduce the period of 07-08 years, the situation of an overheated economy, but most types of raw material drugs have been recovered from the bottom. This process of recovery and the decrease in the opposite last year, while economic recovery is expected to strengthen the lower reaches of the real consumption began to recover, on the other hand go through the inventory of the previous stage, the current lower and middle channels are beginning to replenish inventory. This is consistent with our previous expectations, that in 2009 API market will significantly lower after the high of the phenomenon before. Pharmaceutical raw materials prices also rose on the session, the overall trend is gradually increased.
We note that different kinds of raw materials for drugs, be different from the situation, the resulting price fluctuation of different. This is what we made last year: the competitive structure of different products and entry barriers, leading to pricing discrepancies. Monopoly pricing of products lies in the hands of the supply side, prices are more stable, even if the fluctuations are far from the cost line; not the monopoly of the product price fluctuations, even not from the cost zone.
Vitamin C : A high degree of monopoly, new entrants do not pose a threat
VC industry alliance strength is still in a strong position. The last two months about rumors of VC prices may loose more. View from the market price, the domestic VC offer early drop was 80-90 yuan / kg. The meeting gave the VC API manufacturer price adjustment opportunity, will the manufacturer refused to offer. We and Eastern medicine, stone medicine exchange, we learned that five VC manufacturers (Chinese medicine, Eastern medicine, stone medicine, country, Shandong Hualong) will be discontinued 75 days in the summer uniform, the time is from July to September, in which East drug will be discontinued for 3 months. After the shutdowns, VC of the market supply will be tight, manufacturers may offer up to 15 dollars / kg. We believe that shutdown will not result in real earnings of production enterprises affected, it is understood, the Pharmaceutical has been prepared with sufficient inventory for the sale of cut-off period, we estimate the sales volume of basic and the first quarter. Shandong Hualong
market had worried that the market expansion will have an impact. But our judgments are not the purpose of Hualong expansion is to change the existing price, but to increase productivity scale, so that they have on the price of capital and the Legend of the par. From a practical outcome, Hualong capacity release and no change in price trends, because: 1) the global VC no expansion over the years, while demand steadily increased each year; 2) Legend of Hualong has already reached the agreement in fact pricing. Export data from China Customs to see, VC this year, exports have not decreased since (last year there downstream enterprises in the Olympics surprise Zhunhuo factors) and the prices as we do at the end of judging, to keep steadily.
I am China Quality Dress writer, reports some information about achromatic lens , optical pickup.
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