Pharmaceutical Companies React Medical Reform: Medical Unit Selected In 2010
Some researchers believe that the pharmaceutical industry of new medical reform “the effectiveness” will be reflected in the 2010, 2010, outperformed the Index of Traditional Chinese Medicine plate potential remains high. But researchers worry that the industry is also faced with lower prices because the industry risk, high-valuation or difficult to maintain.
Since the new medical reform, medicine and plate has been a popular favorite secondary market funds. First half of 2009, affected by the economic recovery and sector rotation, medicine plate in the first half of stagflation, 1 July medicine lags far behind the broader market segment. Entered in August, the gradual introduction of new medical reform policy, access to performance opportunities plate, A flow Disease and essential medicines list into the main line market two investments. In 2010, the medical section of this year whether to continue the strong trend? The reporters found that consistency of researchers in the pharmaceutical segment favored “good circumstances” or has gone.
Medical needs will be further released
2009 policy years in the pharmaceutical industry
Medical reform plan, essential medicines list, Health Insurance Directory and a series of sectoral policies have been gradually introduced. Researchers believe that these policies focus on the implementation in 2010 will have a profound impact on the pharmaceutical industry, pharmaceutical market continued expansion, industry resources to gather and market leading enterprise tilt to the primary effect of these three policies will gradually appear.
Present, the medical needs of domestic residents have entered a period of rapid release, such release of medical institutions in the past two years, the clinic visits and hospital admissions jumped on such data can be reflected. Medical needs of the fast release of the pharmaceutical market will bring continued expansion. Increased government investment, will make the cost of personal health expenditures in proportion falling in the total health expenditure in 2007 accounting for personal expenses decreased to 45.20%, significantly higher than in 2006 decreased by 4.1 percentage points. With the next three years the Government’s huge financial investment and personal expenditure, accounting for the residents would be further decline in people’s medical needs are constantly released.
CITIC Securities researcher Jie Yao that the relevant company to benefit from the expansion, such as essential drugs company exclusive varieties, new entrants to the 2009 version of the directory or B medical insurance A variety of companies to upgrade, the leading pharmaceutical company business. She expects 2009 to 2010 industry revenue will grow 19% and 21%, pre-tax profit rose by 22% and 24%.
States Securities researcher Cai Jianjun that the resources of the entire industry will gradually gather to leading enterprises, comprehensive strength and size advantage will become the core competitiveness of pharmaceutical companies.
Bring upward pressure on the high valuation?
Although the pharmaceutical industry and the plate has a bright future, but some medical researchers on the 2010 block of state expressed concern about the overall operation.
Northeast Securities researcher Song Han noted that with the rapid rise in the second half of 2009, medicine has reached a record high valuation plates, front-line unit in 2009 more than 40 times price-earnings ratio, while the three-line stock price-earnings ratio is more than in times The market for medicine plate so high valuations on the one hand is a promising pharmaceutical sector reform in the context of health care growth, on the other hand, in Hong Kong-listed Sinopharm (2009 price-earnings ratio of 50 times) and GEM (2009 general price-earnings ratio of 60 times) to the medical section of the high base of comparison brought valuations and high valuations will undoubtedly increase pressure medicine plate.
Great Wall Securities researcher Qian Wang also pointed out that medicine plates relative to broader market valuation premium of 80%, at a high level. From the relative valuation of view, the whole plate face certain short-term valuation of pressure; from the absolute valuation level, the current dynamic price-earnings ratio as high as 2009 plates 37 times, the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2010 was as high as 30 times, the absolute valuation levels have not lower plate as a whole have a certain pressure.
At high valuations, a listed company’s growth is very important.
Investment Window: second half of 2010?
“2010 medical plates had chosen the time window of investment is particularly important, I think, medicine section in the second half of 2009 experienced a sharp rise, the plates, many stocks are facing greater pressure on the valuation, take some time dynasties underestimate the value of pressure. We propose to take the first half of 2010, with standard or low, in the second half it is recommended to upgrade as super-distribution plate of Traditional Chinese Medicine. “Tokai Securities, said researcher Yuan ship waves.
He suggested that investors in 2010 to look for investment opportunities in three areas. One benefit the new medical reform policies-than-expected stocks. 2010 is the implementation of the policy on health care reform, from the policy change is expected to achieve results in line with expectations, investors need to focus. List of essential drugs which benefit shares, pharmaceutical stocks related to business integration opportunities, health insurance directory 2009 edition to benefit shares, the low-end Medical Devices Benefit unit, medical service unit should be focused.
Second, there are core competitive advantages mining growth stocks, such as HRH medicine, medicine, and so two-Heron. Third, some relatively investment themes identified by shares: First, asset restructuring and issuance. Example, the parent company Shanghai Modern Pharmaceutical Biomedical Engineering Institute in the trend of restructuring of the central enterprises, the company listed as the only platform, facing new opportunities; second, API Price fluctuations and export recovery, such as its economic medicine, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical prices are expected to rise; Third, a popular interpretation of the depth of feeling.
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