2011: The Wild Year That Was
Every year has its ups and downs, but 2011 seemed to have more than most, creating unusual volatility in the financial markets, with wild swings that had many investors gasping for breath. In a two-week period from July 25 through August 8, the S&P 500 lost almost 17% of its value. Late in the fall, on November 30, it gained 4.3% in a single day. Yet by the end of the year, the S&P 500 was just 0.04 points lower than where it started—the smallest annual change in history. As an investor, you may want to consider some of the events of the year and how they affected the markets and the economy.
Global Events
The pro-democracy movement in the Middle East, dubbed the “Arab Spring” by the media, began in December 2010 with events in Tunisia and spread to Egypt and Libya in early 2011. From a global economic point of view, the Libyan conflict was the most significant because of the country’s key role as an oil producer.
On February 22, after fighting broke out in Tripoli, the S&P 500 dropped 2.1%, its largest single-day decline since the previous summer, and crude oil prices rose 8.6% to reach $93.57 per barrel, the highest level in more than two years. Oil prices continued to rise through the end of April, when they began a six-month decline—despite the fact that the Libyan civil war escalated during this time. A longer view may provide perspective: The spike in oil prices in response to the Libyan uprising was the tail end of a steady, two-year climb that began in February 2009, long before anyone had heard of the Arab Spring.
The earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on March 11 devastated the Japanese economy and caused humanitarian and economic concern around the globe. The S&P 500 dropped for three consecutive days the following week, but it quickly recovered and went on to reach its high for the year on April 29. The real impact of the Japanese disaster for the United States played out over a longer period of time through a decline in the flow of Japanese products. This kind of economic consequence cannot be measured as clearly as a market index, but it may have contributed to slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth during the second quarter of 2011.
Sovereign Debt Concerns
It’s probably not surprising that the events with the most powerful impact on the U.S. markets during 2011 were fundamentally economic in nature. The steep decline of the S&P 500 in late July and early August coincided with acrimonious debate over the federal deficit and raising the debt ceiling. The decline continued for a week after a last-minute agreement was reached, fueled by dissatisfaction over the outcome and the unprecedented downgrading of the U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.
The United States was not alone in struggling with debt in 2011. The European sovereign debt crisis cast a shadow over the global economy and contributed to numerous ups and downs for the markets. After Greece announced it would be unable to meet its financial obligations, the S&P 500 hit its low for the year on October 3. Less than a month later, on October 27, news that European leaders had forged an agreement to address the Greek issue helped spark a 3.4% increase that contributed to the largest one-month rally of the S&P 500 since 1991.
As these examples illustrate, world events can have a dramatic effect on financial markets. However, the effects typically dissipate fairly quickly, and long-term trends are seldom driven by a single event. Rather than focusing on market volatility, it may be more helpful to look at the long-term growth of the U.S. economy. In the third quarter of 2011, real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 1.8%. Although this was less than the growth rate in 2010, it was a substantial improvement over the first two quarters of 2011, suggesting that the economy has continued to recover from the Great Recession of 2008-09.
Perhaps the best economic news of 2011 was that the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% in December, the lowest rate since February 2009. Persistent unemployment affects millions of Americans and has been one of the most significant drags on the economy and financial markets. If this trend continues, it may bode well for 2012.
It will probably take some time to fully understand the economic impact of the domestic and global events of 2011. Although it’s important for investors to monitor these kinds of events, an emotional response may not reflect the real dynamics of the situation. The wisest course is usually to continue following a sound investment strategy based on your long-term goals, personal situation, and risk tolerance.
David D. Kassir, AAMS, CMFC is a registered Financial Planner with Manna Capital Management, a registered Broker/Dealer, member FINRA & SIPC.
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