Reconstruction will not lead to tension between the domestic steel supply and de
One can guarantee the reconstruction of domestic steel demand
Not long ago, a serious earthquake occurred in Wenchuan County of Sichuan Province, and spread to neighboring cities and counties, the affected population more than 2100 million. Earthquake caused substantial damage to building collapse, heavy task of reconstruction is expected to require a certain amount of structural steel. However, this number relative to domestic production capacity is not large, will not lead to tight domestic supply and demand.
Calculated in accordance with the relevant departments, more than 6 layers at this stage of urban housing construction, steel consumption per square meter of 20? 50 kg. If we take the middle value of high limit, in accordance with the consumption of steel per square meter construction area of 30 kg calculation (in fact the rural housing construction fell far short of this figure), then in accordance with the 21 million population, housing all need rebuilding, construction area of 30 square square meters (including the sharing of facilities, transportation facilities, the same below), all redevelopment area of 600 million square meters, the needs of various types of steel consumption of 18 million tons.
1800 tons of steel mean? It means that each post-disaster reconstruction of the affected population, consumption of 857 kg of steel, according to a family of four terms, each family close to 3.5 tons. Therefore, no matter from which side estimates, 18 million tons of steel consumption volume reconstruction are sufficient.
Be pointed out that 18 million tons of steel consumption is not the year. For at least 3 years post-disaster reconstruction time, assigned to the annual consumption is 500? 6 million tons.
Statistics, 2008, 4 months, the national steel output of 192.35 million tons, even though about 10% excluding double counting, the annual steel output will be 5.2 million tons. The 500? 6 million tons of post-disaster reconstruction demand, the national steel output over the same period accounted for only about 11%, Furthermore, at this stage there are some domestic steel production yield potential, are fully capable to meet the reconstruction needs of the increase in steel.
This one? In April, the accumulated total national export of steel and Billet 16.27 million tons, less than the same period last year exported 7.76 million tons, a monthly average of 1.94 million tons, that is, the reconstruction of the annual steel consumption, only the equivalent of a quarter of the 2008 steel and billet exports decrease volume. This alone, you can replace the increase in post-disaster reconstruction and a surplus of steel capacity.
Be squeezed from the tight monetary policy and property market bubble and other factors, domestic speculative buy a house buy a house and investments are greatly inhibited; dense atmosphere makes watching live buy a house from the normal demand was delayed; high investment price, also makes a substantial development funds shrink. National real estate investment in 2007 increased 30.2%, but the completed area of commercial housing increased by only 4.3%, at the lowest level in over three years. 1 quarter of this year, almost the same situation. Experts believe that this phenomenon is the most important reason, one investment price, the same amount of investment reflected in the volume of investment (in physical terms) decrease; Then there are developers slow down the construction progress, delaying completion time. It reflects the current real estate market, wait and see situation. Increase the amount of housing completed fall also reflects the real estate industry feel the financial strain. The idea that the 2008 Chinese real estate developers for more than 1 trillion funding shortfall in the capital chain, the risk of fracture at any time. The impact of these aspects will inhibit the consumption of steel in real estate, and then make new steel products to increase the post-disaster reconstruction needs are filled.
Thus, reconstruction of steel demand despite the great, but not beyond the scope of domestic supply, and because some of the factors that consumers he rose there was a complete hedge, it did not cause the total steel demand increase, of course, will not cause the tension between supply and demand.
2, a multi-pronged regulation of construction steel market
Although the reconstruction does not cause tension in the national steel supply and demand, but the departments concerned should strengthen macro-control, to take early preventive measures:
1. To adjust the production structure, construction steel, steel production increased.
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