Factors Driving Mined Resources Demand
With need for mining defined as the gap between global demand and recycled supply, how much mining do we need at the end of the century? It is not too hard to describe the key drivers of the answer to that question, but it is much harder to forecast how those drivers will change over the rest of this century in jaw crusher manufacturing. The estimates of global demand for mined resources as presented in this article are derived from a basic model combining estimates of the key drivers described below. Only deterministic analysis using high level estimates by the UN, metal producer associations, and major mining companies has been performed. A valuable addition to this analysis would be a more probabilistic approach, which would demonstrate the wide range of uncertainty of these forecasts. However, the results below most likely fall somewhere in the middle of this range, providing a basis for discussion and helping to set a framework for design of the industry over the very long term.
The first set of determinants of the future of the mining industry is the drivers for global demand: the number of people (population) and the need for metals per person (resource intensity) are the key drivers of demand. The latest forecast of the United Nations for global population growth forecasts a growth to 9.3bln people in 2050 and 10.1bln in 2100. Most of this growth will take place in countries with a low current development level, playing into the second driver of resource intensity. The large iron ore miners don’t get tired of stressing that the fundamental demand growth for their products in the next decades comes from increasing resource intensity in China and India with the use of sand maker. With other less developed countries following on the ladder of development the global resource intensity is expected to grow by over 1% per year up to 2040, with growth slowing to some 0.3% annually thereafter. Other drivers playing into global demand that are hard to predict are technological innovation and the shift of consumption patterns from one type of metal to another or to different types of materials.Sand maker:http://www.crusher-machine.com/18.html
Sand maker:http://www.hxjqchina.com/product-list_57.html
The second set of drivers impacts our global recycling performance. The key determinants of success in this area are the ability to collect metals for recycling at the end of their useful life (old scrap collection rate), the ability to collect the scrap created upon manufacturing of goods (new scrap collection rate), and the efficiency of the recycling process. Of these parameters the most important future improvements should be expected in the old scrap collection rate, which is currently below 50% for both copper and aluminium. The old scrap recycling rate and the process efficiency together form the End of Life Recycling Rate (EOL-RR), promoted by the ICMM as the most important metric for measuring recycling success.
The final factors to be aware of here are the extent and availability of ‘above the ground stocks’, both actively used or passively stored somewhere, and the time the metals are actually in use before begin disposed and being available for recycling (the recycling time lag). If a metal is typically in use for 30 years, the amount of material available for recycling now equals what was produced 30 years ago. Because demand has been growing rapidly, this recycled supply satisfied only a small part of demand.
Processing your request, Please wait....
