Global Demand for Ore Mining in 2080
Mining will become more capital intensive as miners seek to offset declining grades by reducing operating costs even using cone crusher. Automation will likely also spread to blast-hole drilling rigs, excavators that can differentiate between ore and waste, together with increased use of more advanced operations centres to remotely operate an increased number of mine equipment and processes.
As discussed before, any long term forecast of demand and supply is highly speculative, but putting together the data above for iron, copper, and aluminium in a time series model a likely pattern for recycling and the future of mining emerges. Many developments could change this view of long term demand, but if the business of mining and recycling continues without major wildcard events, the most likely scenario for the mining industry is depicted in the graphs below. In turn, rising demand is forcing miners to tap poorer resources in riskier environments, such as deeper mines, increasing emphasis on automation.
Global demand for almost all mined metal will increase rapidly for the next decades, despite all the improvements in scrap collection and recycling rates. The rapid growth of population and resource intensity will put pressure on miners to bring more capacity on line up to approximately 2040. But then the changing landscape becomes evident: population growth and resource intensity growth slow down and start to be outstripped by improved recycling performance of impact crusher. Although global demand for metals continues to increase, demand for mined supply actually starts to decrease slowly, with mining only accounting for 30-40% of total supply in 2080 versus 50-80% in the current situation. The initial rapid increase and the consecutive slowdown and decrease of mined supply lead to a situation in which demand for mined copper and aluminium in 2080 is only slightly higher than current demand. Demand for iron ore will even be back at the current level of demand.ball mill:http://www.crusher-machine.com/21.html
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For most people involved in the current mining boom the idea of zero growth over a period of 70 years might be a surprising thought. The future of mining is not only a story of mining lower and lower grade ores in more and more remote places with increasingly instable social and political environments. It is also a story of the mining industry moving from being the major supplier of raw materials to being a less important player on the global stage, plugging the supply shortage of the recycling industry. This fundamental change will force mining executives to rethink the business of mining, rethink the investment selection criteria, redesign organizational structures, rebuild marketing organizations, reassess acquisition strategies in a consolidating industry, and even reconsider vertical integration with recycling companies. Whichever way the industry will turn, it is going to be an interesting ride.
I am personally very interesting that the metal worth examining as an example of recycling and future dynamics was not mentioned; lead. Over 65% of the current worlds lead supply is from secondary sources and a great model to look at how markets, both primary and secondary function including raw material prices, smelting, trading, environmental etc. The often quoted line “technological improvements” is really in scrap handling/sorting not the metallurgy, which is the same for both primary and secondary lead smelting.
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