Corn Market Is Not Made By “the End”
Decline in domestic corn spot market once again clear that both production and marketing area or greater than the decline in North and South Port. Decreased feed consumption, lack of deep-processing enterprises operating rates, good support efforts of national policies is limited, the market climate of strong bearish factors weighing on the market price is still serious in the recent market trend is not favorable, while hope and confidence, disappointment will increase as the degree and then to the sales area by the producing imminent market decline. When the national average price below the pre-psychological level people, the last line of defense had already collapsed, there is much for the later spot price downside, the market has not dare to judge, only want to continue to focus on changes in market conditions to operate .
Test a low spot prices again
Recently, the domestic spot market to return to the decline of corn, and pessimism in the market, low feed demand, the phenomenon of multiple acquisitions of the main suspension of increase under the influence of such circumstances, prices fell sharply in some areas. According to Chinese soybean net statistics, as of December 11, the average price of domestic corn per tonne on the spot market (the same below) 1,500 yuan, compared with last week, down 30 yuan, compared with last month, down 90 yuan, and the compared to the same period fell 205 yuan. Which, in addition to the market decline is relatively small sales areas, other than a larger market would decline. Heilongjiang Jixian offer 900-940 points per grain, moisture content 28%, down from last week 60-100 yuan; Zhaodong deep-processing enterprises offer 970 yuan, the moisture content of 30%, down 60. Deep-processing enterprises in Jilin Province acquisition price drop in concentration range between 10-20 dollars; grain merchants offer reduced rate is relatively large, usually 20-40 dollars. Surrounding areas in Liaoning Province decline significantly port, Jinzhou port operators around the dry food grain purchase price of 1,450 yuan, down 50-70 dollars; Yingkou Port operators around the grain purchase price of 1430-1440 dollars, down 60-70 dollars; the northern port settlement price as The yuan fell to between 1480-1500. Drop off large enterprises within the production area, similar to the Zouping and Shouguang, Weifang, etc. the factory gate fell quotations ranging from 70-100 dollars; grain purchase price decline in a relatively small business. South of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces affected the market price by the producing areas, have come down. Guangdong Port fell mainstream bid 30-40 yuan to 1550 yuan. Thus, in the case of dominant negative this month, the domestic spot market since the pattern of continued decline, and no obvious positive support in the case of a weak temporary difficult to change.
Loss of enthusiasm for demand-side procurement
Although a substantial increase in maize production in China, but by the feed and processing needs of the doldrums, the international financial crisis and other factors, does not hold the spot price of corn high run trend, but multiple negative factors in the continually falling, and has fallen for two years before the price. Analyze the reasons, I believe that the main demand-low impact. First, the breeding experience of winter, due to ample supply of eggs, meat market, its price will be way down from this year to more farmers in the second half has been a loss of livestock and poultry slaughter will is not strong even after the Bulan Bulan delay time, direct lead to decline in feed demand; Secondly, the deep processing of poor corporate profits and even losses, limited production, widespread shutdown by the international financial crisis, international grain prices continued to decline, China’s market has been affected, plus the cancellation of export tax rebate policy Some raw materials for the production of corn ethanol, starch, fuel ethanol, ddgs, Protein powder processing exports decreased significantly after the transfer of domestic sales due to oversupply, prices of their products all the way down, especially once starch test a low price , causing serious processing profits shrinking, helpless limited production, suspend production, resulting in decreased consumption of corn. Consumer demand for corn down the main two, plus the positive supply season, maize price drops.
Grain farmer grain merchants hope sigh
Since 2008, annual output of new corn market price all the way down, although here the two countries issued a temporary storage in the Northeast in the central Corn acquisition tasks, but for various reasons, did not play a driving role in corn market and even water shed, the price continued to fall process, extremely anxious farmers, grain merchants also because profit margins are thin or no food beyond the reach of hope. 2008, China’s corn production is expected to reach 156 million tons, higher than last year, and food quality generally better than last year, coupled with significantly increased the cost of planting, farmers had expected to sell a relatively good price point, but did not expect, after the corn market continued down. That inaction in the grain business, although no money to earn, but loss; from the beginning has been involved in public procurement in the grain business, profit not only rich enough, or even lose money. Feed consumption with improved short-term conditions and deep processing enterprises to improve the operating rate to boost the market proved difficult, even without hope. So the short term not suitable for hoarding food business, I tend to keep stocks enter the market next spring and then more appropriate, because the current majority of starving peasants retained in the hands of the spring temperatures rise gradually, farmers may focus Shou Liang, when the spot may further lower the price.
Where no one dare to speak the end of
Among the many negative factors, the domestic spot market price of corn continued to edge lower, bottom of the previous market price expectations, the decline in the among the past, but also a new low has occurred (11 December average price of domestic spot 1500 yuan / ton, 10, fell 15 yuan / ton). Currently the market has not the bottom lightly, just think of poor feed consumption, further processing is difficult to improve enterprise efficiency, the state does not continue to produce strong positive policy case, the corn will remain weak spot trends. Current market sentiment is extremely bearish, even if some countries are expected to continue to release hundreds of tons of corn export quota of news there, but if you do not give tax subsidies and other preferential policies for exporters, but also useless, spot prices decline still. Although it is said that the State may also be issued by the central task of the temporary storage of corn bought, but people are still worried about how much of their ability to play a positive role in the market. Therefore, regardless of supply and demand sides, purchase and sale are subject to caution.
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