Beverage Industry: Reduced Production Of The Main Producing Countries To Promote
Events Recently, ICE main contract frozen orange juice (FCOJ) prices fluctuations. Since early October 2009 from 98.5 cents / lb higher first Friday of 151.15 cents / lb, or 53.5%, which rose as high as 17.1% last week, hit a new high of two years; 10 years on January 11, orange juice main contract prices dropped 12.77 percent, a record since 1967, the largest single-day decline.
Key point Orange main producing countries to drastically cut the price of orange juice constitute the root causes of rising long-term
United States and Pakistan are two main producing countries cut sharply rising price of orange juice constitutes the root cause. Currently, over 90% of orange juice production in Brazil and the United States from the two main producing countries, accounting for 55.8% orange juice production and 34.8%.
Brazil’s orange production declined for two consecutive years, 08/09 crop season than the 06/07 crop season total production fell 10%. Since the beginning of the U.S. orange
low temperatures and lack of rainfall, compared with 08/09 production fell 7.1% last year, especially in Florida, the first major producing provinces, production fell by 16%.
We believe that the United States and Pakistan continued to significantly cut orange juice to form since 2008 Financial Orange juice prices rise since the crisis and long-term underlying causes.
Experience cold weather in Florida is the orange juice prices in the short-term disturbance promoter
Orange crop is cold intolerance, usually 28 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 2 degrees Celsius) temperatures in the growth of several hours will cause crop damage, thereby affecting the orange production.
Encounter this weekend’s cold in Florida, part of the orange growing region of the temperature dropped to 24-28 degrees Fahrenheit, to freeze injury orange severely affected, it is orange juice prices soared last Friday caused a short-term promoter.
However, the ultimate cold weather level or better than the expected weekend weather forecast, this is the price inflation following the last Friday of orange juice after the collapse this week, a price one of the reasons they occur.
For the impact of cold wave, the market is expected to turn orange, Florida, 5% cut, but the precise cut data can be seen until after two weeks.
The United States, including the current frequent cold air activities throughout the Northern Hemisphere, in the future may continue to hype the case of cold, frozen orange juice is difficult to avoid large fluctuations in fear.
Global orange juice production growth rate faster than demand, particularly in the last four years, continued to cut output by 17.3% orange juice, orange juice inventories lead to international consumption is low, we are optimistic on the price of orange juice and long-term expectations.
Orange juice demand has been steady growth, the growth rate was significantly accelerated in recent years. Orange juice is the world’s largest Juice Industry Raw material According to USDA data show that the global orange juice consumption has remained stable from 1990-2008 compound annual growth rate of 2.89%. Since 2004, demand growth accelerated markedly in recent years to keep global demand for orange juice at 220-230 million tons of compound growth rate rose to 11.56%.
1990 years, the global orange juice production compound growth rate of only 1.26%, 2.89%, lagging the growth rate of demand continued to cut production since 2004, 17.3% for orange juice prices continued to rise. Although the overall steady growth in global orange juice production, but the growth rate lags behind demand growth.
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