International observation: depreciation of the dollar to U.S. linerboard market
In the first half of 2007, despite the growth lag behind the U.S. economy in general, but the U.S. linerboard market continues to remain in good condition. One of the reasons this is rock-solid U.S. export market, the dollar depreciation to U.S. manufacturers once again strong growth in demand in international markets can provide competitive prices, but the U.S. dollar also played domestic demand growth a positive impact.
Depreciation of the dollar or the appreciation of the impact of U.S. domestic demand is difficult to direct insight. Clear the way to do this look at the following times (in five-year terms) market trends: the U.S. dollar during the period (1995 ~ 1999), the dollar reached or close to the peak period (2000 ~ 2004), the dollar's recent period. For each period, the key is to see them in the overall rate of economic growth, Consumption Cost of purchased food and non-durable goods and processed Food Industrial production, Carton Volume and other indicators on the difference.
A record merchandise trade deficit 70s from the 20th century until the early 90s of the 20th century, overall economic growth and Corrugated Carton demand a strong relationship between. However, this association in the 20th century, after the 90s there was broken half of the period, when the overall economy's annual growth rate of 4.2% Kaigegaozou the way forward, and carton shipments compound annual growth rate (CompoundAnnual Growth Rate) is only 2.1%.
The phenomenon is due to overheating caused by the growth of the economy far more than consumers spent on food cost increases on key products. The late 90s in the 20th century, all of the food cost to achieve a steady growth of 2.0% per year, which is the growth of law carton shipments are very similar.
However, as the U.S. dollar during this period increased consumer goods imports to the U.S. appeal, but also against the export product competitiveness in the international market, from the pronged attack from both sides, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit surge, resulting in the U.S. market has started to carton, "complaining," the first signs.
Merchandise trade deficit since 2000 in the early years of continuing record high, even if the U.S. dollar reached its apex in 2002 as well. One reason is that in 2003 and 2004 imports from China, there growth spurt. From 2000 to 2004, the U.S. economy as a whole the average growth rate fell to 2.2%, the cost of food and consumer spending growth rate is very close.
However, in this five-year annual growth rate of industrial output value of processed food is less than 1%, the average annual output value of non-durable goods fell 0.1%. During the same period, due to being such as recyclable corrugated Plastic Box And other alternative Package Snatched part of the market share, so carton shipments at an average annual rate of 0.7% decline.
Dollar increase in the demand Depreciation of the U.S. dollar over the past two years, merchandise trade deficit has finally started to react: In the second half of 2005 and 2006 in the first half deficit to remain stable state, in late 2006 and 2007 was a significant reduction . Despite a significant slowdown in economic growth in the major, but has been on industrial production had a positive impact, so the market can be cardboard boxes since the summer of 2006, Chao Xiaolu forward.
In the United States Information Resources, Inc. (RISI) did predict, it called on U.S. dollar should continue to fall gradually in the coming years, to the U.S. domestic corrugated cardboard boxes and cartons a positive impact on demand.
RISI forecasts the economy the next five years, average annual growth rate of 3.2%, which in the past nine month period compared to growth of 1.7%. Consumers expected to spend on food costs, and Food Industry Output will be similar to the rate of growth, that the food industry as a percentage of total cartons shipped more than 40% and show the importance of.
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