What factors impact crime rates
In spite of the increase in recorded crimes in USA, the increase in relative rates is not often substantiated when we take into consideration the types of offenses involved. McDonald, in her study of the conventional beliefs concerning crime and the criminal justice system, stated that a careful analysis of the statistics between 1950 and 1966 revealed a very slow increase for rates of conviction for serious crimes (indictable offenses). Instead, the rates of conviction for less serious crimes, such as summary traffic violations showed a higher increase. Bedard and McLaughlin using a different population base, provided a time series analysis of crime rates. With the 1949-67 conviction rates for indictable offenses they derived a linear trend of a 0.65% annual increase. (Normandeau, 2001) These USA studies reveal little information about the nature of the relationship between crime ratesand age and sex structure. Therefore, reanalysis of crime statistics with reference to these demographic conditions could shed new light on the pattern of change in criminal activities in USA.This paper will take the following steps:
1. To assess the common measures of criminality (e.g., CCR) and to examine some refined ways of tallying crimes;
2. To introduce the measures standardized with regard to demographic compositions and to determine the contribution of demographic shifts to changes in crime rates;
3. To compare the experience of synthetic and real cohorts;
4. To discuss the implications of the findings.
The official crime statistics have various shortcomings: some are inherent in collecting crime data and others are due to the defective reporting system. Therefore, it is necessary to mention some of these limitations in order to set the direction of the analysis and select the proper data.First, the coverage is incomplete. All figures on criminal offenses in USA are based upon the formal legal definition of criminal offenses and upon reports provided by police forces. It should be noted, therefore, that these statistics do not show the full extent of criminal offenses committed as they deal only with reported crimes or crimes known to the police. It is argued, however, that no other methods prove to be more satisfactory 10 and that official data are not so unworthy of analysis. Secondly, the categories of offenses change from time to time. New offenses could be added while some could be dropped. This problem can usually be avoided by using gross categories of offenses and by confining attention to more serious crimes which do not vary to as great an extent over the years. Thirdly, police forces vary in their efficiency and resources. (Normandeau, 2001) The extent of variation due to this problem, however, can be reduced to a certain degree by using court statistics of serious crimes.
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