2008 third quarter and fourth quarter of machinery industry investment strategy for the situation – the situation machinery industry – machine tool industry
2008, the second and third quarter slowed in the first quarter, compared with a quarter has dropped slightly, but remained above 40%, but the industry still maintained a steady growth, up more than expected.
The construction machinery industry from January to August total industrial output value of 140.555 billion yuan to complete, an increase of 45.20%; total sales income of 134.636 billion yuan, an increase of 37.51%.
Capital market performance in construction machinery industry stocks divergence, Zoomlion, the performance of the most prominent, an increase of 50%.
Loose credit policy implemented by the Government of China will promote the development of the industry.
China's "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" and the current policy will promote the growth of fixed investment and thus stimulate the development of the industry.
Real estate investment 1.5049 trillion yuan, 80.8 billion yuan investment in railways, highways investment 257.7 billion yuan, water conservancy, environment and public infrastructure investments 460.5 billion yuan.
Ministry of Railways 169.804 billion yuan in fixed assets investment, up 50.6%. According to the Ministry of Railways beginning of the project is scheduled for completion in 2008 will invest 300 billion yuan the year, up 26.9% 08
expected fourth quarter, the industry will maintain steady growth.
08 years ago, three quarters of Machinery Industry Performance Review
2008 in the second and third quarter slowed in the first quarter, but the industry still maintained a steady growth.
Based on our understanding of the industry, usually the industry concentrated in the first half of the season, generally the third and fourth quarter in the off-season, so we had previously made a forecast slowdown in performance, engineering machinery industry growth in the third quarter results will not be great, but the fact that the whole industry performance better than expected.
The construction machinery industry, according to statistics accumulated from January to August industrial output value of 140.555 billion yuan, an increase of 45.20%; total sales income of 134.636 billion yuan, an increase of 37.51%; of which export value of 144 billion, accounting for 10.24%, up 73.47 percent. Judging from the trend, this year's 2-3 quarter growth rate of construction machinery industry have come down so more than a quarter, but remained above 40%.
Industry performance for third quarter than we expected, we think that this is primarily a national increase in the demand for fixed investment, and increased the intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control. China's "Eleventh Five-Year" plan put forward new rural, high-speed rail plan and so greatly promoted the demand for construction machinery, will stimulate some time in the future development of the industry, to promote performance improvement.
Despite the steady development of China's construction machinery industry, but the industry's performance in the capital market is not satisfactory, the industry market weaker than the city machine, three-quarter fell 31.46% mechanical section, a drop of high the market average. We think this is because of China's capital market is subject to external influence of international markets. Investors also worried about the future is full of industry leading causes of plate underperformed the market. This outstanding performance of individual company performance in a larger differentiation, in which Sany, Zoomlion, Zhenhua Port Machinery Company as represented, is more objective to enhance performance, up more, which increased by Zoomlion 50 % or more. However, some poor company performance, such as asset restructuring Xugongkeji drag on overall performance.
Future construction machinery industry outlook We believe that investors should not worry about, because the construction machinery industry influenced by the fixed investment, while China's "Eleventh Five Year Plan" and the current policy will promote the growth of fixed investment and thus stimulate the industry development of our performance throughout the industry to continue steady growth in confidence in the future.
Loose monetary policy to stimulate economic development and deepening of the financial crisis, the real economy problems will continue to appear, resulting in the present stage in China and neighboring countries have entered the rate cut cycle. We believe that the state has used a variety of monetary tools to promote economic development, and this will certainly stimulate demand increases. Enterprises in the low interest rate environment will choose the lower cost types of fixed investment, thus boosting the overall demand for construction machinery industry. Also effective with the implementation of national macro-control, main economic indicators show that the downward trend of inflation has been, and will lead to domestic price, the price of oil lower, then the credit would be logical to relax.
This will definitely promote the growth of fixed investment in China, thus driving the development of construction machinery industry.
The market is full of the Government's fiscal policy is expected
Investors that the government's VAT will be facing the country, spread extensively. Analysts have estimated that VAT will save my company about 150 billion yuan of funds. Suppose all the companies will save money for fixed facilities, then this new demand of 150 billion yuan to bring about equal to the 2008 value of machinery industry sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts) is about 2.35%.
Sichuan post-quake reconstruction will boost the demand for construction machinery
We determine that boost will be very limited, because the current real estate construction has become a major demand for construction machinery users.
To first half of 2008, for example, several major downstream users of construction machinery investment as follows: real estate investment 1.5049 trillion yuan, 80.8 billion yuan investment in railways, highways investment 257.7 billion yuan, water conservancy, environment and public infrastructure investments 460.5 billion yuan. In several of the real estate investment accounted for 65.31%. Accordingly, we judge, with the rapid growth of real estate investment drop in Q4 of this year and the first half of 2009, engineering machinery sales of rapid output growth will fall. According to the Ministry of Railways data, from January to August 2008, the Ministry of Railways completed investment in fixed assets 169.804 billion yuan, up 50.6%.
Early according to the Ministry of Railways plans to complete the full year 2008 is expected to invest 300 billion yuan, up 26.9%. Recent news that the Ministry of Railways plan to raise investment in 2009 and 4000 billion yuan, up 33.3%, see Figure 5. Thus, the railway equipment industry will become the machinery industry sub-sectors in the future growth of the relatively established industries.
Construction machinery industry investment strategy that we believe that although the plate by the International Virtual current economic crisis, the international demand reduction and other adverse effects, resulting in poor performance section, we contrast the past two years by the industry valuation can see
I am an expert from decorative-wall-panel.com, usually analyzes all kind of industries situation, while decorative-wall-panel.com provides the latest news, industry report and quality product, such as china Mosaic texture , china Stone texture decorative wall panel
Processing your request, Please wait....
