Tariffs raise the domestic supply of coal is hard to change – coal – the machine tool industry
Ministry of Finance has the export of all coal products, tariffs are increased to 10%, in order to increase domestic coal supply. But analysts say this policy has little effect on domestic supply and demand, but short-term international price formation will support. Little impact on domestic supply and demand
Ministry of Finance issued a notice, under the general trade export of coking coal export tentative tax rate from 5% to 10%; other bituminous coal and other raised from the zero tariff imposed provisional tariffs of 10%. In addition, the coke export tentative tax rate from 25% to 40%. Analysts said the government move was intended to restrain exports of resource products to ease the tight domestic coal supply situation.
For the Tariff Commission's notice and no mention of the tariff changes in the anthracite coal trade expert Huang Teng told reporters that the documents published on the website from the Ministry of Finance of view, the fourth "other bituminous coal, etc.", the tariff as 27,011,100 species is anthracite. According to Great Wall Securities analyst Lai Lihui introduced first half of the anthracite coal exports of 380 million tons, second only to steam coal, coking coal export volume is more than twice. Thus, the introduction of the temporary tariff policy cover all varieties of coal, coal export tariffs to be increased to 10%. Ping An Securities analyst Chen Liang said
, the policy in July after the release of coal import and export data released shortly, shows that the Government speed up the reaction of the coal industry. He pointed out that the large gap in the domestic coal in June and July, China's net coal exports reached 4.24 million tons respectively, and 139 million tons of domestic coal shortage situation that is undoubtedly worse. Although the tariff increase
efforts can not say much, but the effect of improving the domestic supply and demand, the industry is almost no interest. Lai Lihui that the adjustment of the real domestic supply and demand did not affect, but will strengthen the country's expected export restrictions.
Customs data show that 1-July this year the country exported 30.28 million tons of coal, up 4.9% over the same period the previous year. This year the Ministry of Commerce issued the first batch of coal export quota of 31.8 million tons, the second batch of quotas has not been announced. If calculated according to the first, leaving only 1.52 million tons quota not used. Experts predict that the total export quota this year, lower than last year, according to export 53 million tons last year, the actual calculation, there are 22.72 million tons quota available. Huang Teng said that even if the remaining quotas are no longer exported, all the domestic, will not have much impact on domestic supply and demand.
In fact, only 22.72 million tons of estimated annual consumption of 2.7 billion tons of 0.84%. Huang Teng believes that changes in the domestic coal supply to 3000-4000 tons of possible impact on domestic prices.
While coal export enterprises, the policy will not affect the effectiveness of their exports. According to the China Shenhua insiders, despite the export tariff increase will increase the cost of export enterprises, but the signing of supply contracts with foreign customers, the provisions are appropriate, if you encounter such force majeure, the government raised export tariffs and export enterprises in accordance with the increase the proportion of tariff increase the contract price, therefore, net profit enterprises that export will not be affected.
Short or support international prices rebound
Overall increase in China announced export tariffs on coal, while BJ steam coal index Australia last week also appeared to stabilize the situation stabilized.
According to industry sources, last Monday, Tuesday on news of tariff increase has been spread, according to Huang Teng introduced last week, when the international coal price has dropped to 150 U.S. dollars minimum / ton; by Thursday, the Australian Stock BJ index that rebounded back to 155 U.S. dollars / ton. From the end of July to early August, the international price of coal has been from 172 U.S. dollars / ton, down to 155 U.S. dollars / ton, down almost 20 U.S. dollars / ton.
Chen Liang said the recent addition to Australia, the Asia-Pacific region's major coal exporting countries, including Indonesia, Vietnam, and China have restrictions on coal exports, which indicates that the scarcity of coal is increasing. The thermal coal exports to China increased by 10% tariff, while in fact the international coal prices pushed up 10%. Industry forecasts, international coal prices will be stabilized since then stabilize and rebound in the near future.
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