Food prices rose throughout the year or over 5% of the food prices increase infl
Rural Development Institute Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the National Bureau of Statistics on the 20th of Rural Survey 2010 jointly issued "Rural Green Paper" prediction: in 2010 the price growth rate of food production may exceed 5%, thereby bringing the overall prices of agricultural products rose 4 %. Attention of scholars in the acceptance of pig production, "Economic Information Daily" reporters have said that when the price of pork in the second half is expected to rise significantly. Taking into account the unusual weather conditions this year, driven by international prices on domestic food prices could send power up the future, the year the inflation pressure is growing.
The Green Paper said, according to the period from 1978 to 2009 more than 100 years, food production price index time series, select the model to simulate and predict the price of grain production in 2010 estimated growth rate may exceed 5%. Similarly, using the time series and model simulation, forecasting crop production in 2010 rose 5 percent, forestry products fell 1%, livestock products and fishery product prices were up 2% and 3%. Integrated production of different types of price change, it is estimated the 2010 general level of prices of agricultural products rose 4%.
However, the Chinese Enterprise Confederation Hu, deputy director of research in reading later than the forecasts of the Green Paper, that the estimated increase in food prices was not enough. His "Economic Information Daily," told reporters that if the price of pork is expected to take into account the rapid increases in the second half of this year's unusual weather on crops, and international influence on domestic prices of agricultural products, food prices rose year should also be higher number.
The rapid rise of pork prices in the second half there is the possibility. Last year, the winter solstice (December 23), China's hog prices continued falling for 14 weeks. According to the National Development and Reform Commission monitoring, on March 31 in 36 cities pig grain price ratio dropped to 5.01:1, significantly lower than the breakeven point of 6:1. To this end, on April 2 the central purchasing and storage of frozen pork started working. According to the National Development and Reform Commission monitoring, April 14 appearance pig prices have rebounded to 9.8 yuan per kg compared to last week (9.68 yuan per kg) rose 1.24%. 3 hog prices rose a half months for the first time stabilized.
This is likely to be the new round of rising pork prices starting point. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Livestock Centre for Economic Research Liu Man, in accepting "Economic Information Daily," an interview that the comprehensive analysis of all the circumstances, the price of pork is now certain is that the bottom region, the future will be higher. He said that due to various reasons, a large number of the current hog slaughter, the future supply can not keep up, there will be half the price of pork rebound. He predicted: "This pork prices rebound will not be a moderate, but gains will be bigger, more fierce momentum."
Bank of China International Fellow Hu Wenzhou directly predicted that if the central purpose of purchasing and storage of frozen pork to make pig food back to 6:1 than the breakeven level, purchasing and storage is expected to drive hog prices will rise from the current level of 15% over last year growth of 10%.
Abnormal climate will impact on food prices. Since last autumn, including Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, southwest China, including history, suffered a devastating drought, millions of hectares of agricultural crops at present. According to the Joint Securities estimates that if the drought-hit areas 10% of grain production, the national grain output expected to be around 1.8%.
Joint impact of the drought, other parts of the grain is also rapidly rising. 12 Jiangsu Price Bureau released data in March this year, Jiangsu prices rose 12.7% over last year. Dongxing Securities Tan glaze macroeconomic policy researcher, told reporters that although the southwestern provinces of the country the proportion of food production is not high, but the drought has increased the income difficulties, do not rule out cuts. Rules based on past food prices, a conservative judge prices up 10% this year.
In addition, international prices will also impact on the domestic play imported. National Development and Reform Commission Zhu Xianfeng analysts said the price monitoring center, to see from the features of cyclical fluctuations in prices, international prices will soon complete the bottom of the consolidation process, in 2010 the first international food prices will show a stable trend after the rise. 2009 taking into account the international speculative funds will focus on energy, metals, oil products, in context of ample liquidity in 2010, may take the opportunity to switch to smaller initial increase, the current lower prices of food variety, so food Financial Features of the product may be further increased, thereby pushing up food prices.
Hu later to reporters and made a rough calculation: If in accordance with the Academy of Social Sciences forecast that food prices rose 4%, food prices in the consumer price (C PI) in the weight is 1 / 3, the actual drive C PI up 1.3 percentage points. If we consider the price of pork may rise significantly, given the boost of climate factors on food prices, consider the impact of international prices on domestic and at least an additional 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.
In addition, basic academic now accepted throughout the year by 1 percentage point hikes resulted in about three add up to almost 2.6 percentage points. China's current prices of factors, including rising home prices led to rapid increases in housing prices, international prices of staple products such as domestic driven. Particularly China, as a processing power, require significant imports of raw materials, the current raw material prices rise, the international crude oil prices have more than 80 U.S. dollars a barrel. "Take into consideration the annual To realize the target of 3% there is a big pressure to control the economic sectors try and try again." He said.
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