The oil market is still pressure on the next two to three years – Slurry Pumps E
London terrorist attacks, the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, and tensions surrounding the Iranian nuclear issue have made the situation more tense international market. Oil market in the next two to three years are still under immense pressure, oil price growth will slow down the first six months on the basis of good economic performance, the U.S. economy with a strong momentum into the second half.
Standard Chartered to the U.S. in 2005 and 2006 GDP growth forecast from 3.5%, respectively, and 2.2% to now 3.6% and 3.1%, but still less than 4.2% in 2004. China's GDP growth forecast from 9.5% in 2004 to slow down to 8% in 2005. As the United States and China's economic growth synchronized downturn, Standard Chartered forecasts global economic growth will gradually slow down. Slow down the growth rate will ease the pressure on futures.
Strong push energy prices higher than the Reuters CRB commodity index last month. Oil prices will continue to be the focus of the news. Further short-term focus in the market (refining capacity constraints and possible supply disruptions) and long (to meet the growing demand and geopolitical tensions) factors, oil prices hit 60 U.S. dollars a barrel over to a new high.
Standard Chartered forecasts growth will slow down oil prices, demand remains strong. Eased the supply situation, but slow, the oil market in the next two to three years will have huge pressure. Soaring oil prices will drop slightly, but unstable and subject to supply-side effects.
London terrorist attacks, the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, and tensions surrounding the Iranian nuclear issue have made the situation more tense international market.
Despite soaring oil prices, oil demand continues to grow. International Energy authority (IEA) estimated that U.S. oil demand will fill the strong demand for China's oil drop. However, U.S. GDP growth rate of 4.2% from 2004 to 2005 slowed to 3.6% and 3.1% in 2006, we expect international oil accounts for 25% of the total demand for U.S. oil demand will thus slow down, but will remain strong.
Control of domestic commodity prices, local oil refining industry growth and the fourth quarter of 2004, the rapid growth of merchandise exports have made the situation of China's oil demand is uncertain.
China's trade data showed a net crude oil exports in May and June declined. Base showed that the 12-month cumulative rate of net imports of crude oil in August 2004 by the 46% to June 2005 to 14%. Demand growth in 2005 is forecast to be 6%, significantly lower than the 15.2% in 2004, but still strong. We expect GDP growth in 2006 China will become more stable, but China has begun to build strategic oil reserve, oil demand is likely to accelerate slightly.
In the next two to three years, as oil stocks rise in OPEC oil supply outside of OPEC production capacity expansion and growth, a tight oil supply situation will be gradually alleviated.
Global oil inventories are growing but have not yet reached the level of satisfaction with the international market. With the decline in OPEC's spare capacity (which is used to compensate for any unexpected supply disruptions), the level of global oil inventories reached their limits.
Crude oil supply growth outside OPEC and OPEC supply liquefied natural gas to meet the oil demand growth. In this context, with the increase in OPEC production, the remaining capacity of the space is also growing, but slowly. Unless oil demand down, continuing geopolitical tensions, the international oil market will remain under great pressure.
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