The global economy increased by 4.7% and trade increased by 16%
The strongest and biggest research institute in German – Kiel Institute of World Economics issues report recently, Although the global economy appears the signal of slowing down in the second half of the year, in the light of the strong increase of the first half of the year, the economy estimate of the whole year still can increase by 4.7%. Expected the economy will increase by 16% this year after the world trade shrank by 11.3% last year.
The report thinks, Although people are worrying about the world economy prospect, overall seeing, the global economy does not lose the increasing trend, only the speed will slow down, the strength will weaken. In one word, strong recovery will change into “mild” increase. Estimate the economy in US and Japan will all increase by 2.6%. Euro-Zone economy shrank by 4.1% last year, estimates increase by 1.6% this year. The economy in UK is more difficult, its negative growth in last year is 4.9%, but it realized the increase rate of 1.5% this year. In US, the economy shrank by 2.6% last year, it can be said that it will restore the same level as it did last year. The economy increase scale is the biggest, its negative growth is 5.2%, it is still need some time to restore to the level before the crisis.
The whole economy of the industrial nations shrank by 3.6% in last year, estimated will increase by 2.2%. But the economy situation of the seven large industrial developed nations is better than the whole economy situation of the industrial nations. Estimated the economy growth of the seven large developed industrial nations will reach 2.7% this year. In sharp contrast are the new emerging nations and threshold nations. About the economy increase forecast of this year, China will reach 11%, northeast Asian countries will be 8.4%, Latin American countries will be 5.8%, India will be 9.2% and Russia will be 4.8%. German is the fastest country of economy recovery in the seven large industrial nations, estimated its economy increase will be 3.4% this year. It becomes the fast increasing year since the union of German. We can conclude the result that the global economy estimated increase 4.7% through the economy recovery of the above country and area. The global trade shrank by 11.3% last year, it will exceed the level before the crisis, reach 16% this year.
Considering the global economy increase has been slow down, the response of the central bank of the industrial nations is extremely quick. They give obvious signal, that is, continue to keep current monetary policy. In another word, it is expansionary monetary policy. No matter Federal Reserve or the Central Bank of Europe all will not change their current monetary policy. The Central Bank of Europe expressed definitely in the early September this year, the loans to the business banks have no limitation in quantity and the interest rate will still be 1%. This kind of loose monetary policy will continue until the mid-year of the next year most probably.
The financial policy is on the contrary. Most industrial nations will enter financial constraints and rectifying period. They think, under the situation of highly indebted, the international trade can not continue to develop seeing from former experience. So from the next year, they will cancel the economy stimulating plan and restore the normal development. This policy will be carried out at least in the Euro-Zone.
About the global economy situation in 2011, Kiel Institute of World Economy thinks, the increasing speed will be further slow down, the increasing scale estimated to be 3.6%. The global trade increasing scale will drop from 16% of this year to 7.5%. From: China wholesale
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