Reserve sugar: sugar head, the sword of Damocles – sugar, sugar – Food Industry
Despite drastic changes in the recent sugar market, put pressure on the library storage and round the market panic. Main long with a sudden turn empty, leading to a crackdown. As the reserves of sugar or release details of the current round of libraries have not been set, the author seems, Sugar City, near future, it is difficult to get rid of shock consolidation pattern.
6 Sell Neutral data Sales data, as at the end of year 6, the national total of 12.43 million tons of sugar production, sugar and 9.127 million tons total sales, production and marketing rate of 73.4%. Favorable terms, due to cut substantially greater than the sales rate of 68.5% over the same period last year, 5 more percentage points. On the negative side, due to the decreasing sales of Guangdong sugar, beet sugar, the performance of the North is also very common, resulting in a single month sales dropped by nearly 200,000 tons year on year, only 1.15 million tons.
Overall, the sales side of neutral. However, the carry-over stocks from the point of view of supply and demand end of the crop season will still be tight. Because at the end 6, the country's industrial stocks have dropped to 330 million tons, roughly three quarters of last year, sales of the country and, far less than last year 4,670,000 tons of inventory levels. However, last year 600,000 tons of state and local reserves are only collected in the second half, it is expected until the end of October, the national sugar industry to sales depleted inventories. But the circulation more or less on tight supply Sugar Constitute support. In short, the circulation is not enough to sell the sugar is the sugar crop season the most essential support.
High sugar food production to stabilize
Should be said that in June of this year's sugar production the food industry with little change in May, to continue to stabilize the situation high. Carbonated beverages Regard, Juice Beverages, Dairy products , Cookies and candy that five largest sugar industry, dairy production in May by the cumulative growth rate fell to 3.3% to 1.9%, while the cumulative growth rate of fruit juice drinks fell from 24.1% to 22.7% However, the decrease in the chain is not obvious. The cumulative growth rate of carbonated drinks in May from 5.45% to 8.3%, biscuits from a negative growth of 0.6% to a positive growth of 3.5% growth in the latter two fundamental able to wash away the first two growth slowdown. The candy of output growth than the flat ring. As for the summer, more than consumption of frozen Drinks , The cumulative growth rate decreased slightly by one percentage point, performance is acceptable.
We believe that the growth rate of sugary food industry continued to rebound after bottoming out the momentum of fear to temporarily come to an end, the back may be high for some time to stabilize and continue to improve and not much likelihood of sudden deterioration. According to the current growth rate of the downstream sugar food situation, the crop season of actual consumption calculated in accordance with 13 million tons, while consumption of the crop season to reach 13.5 million tons of sugar more difficult is not significant. As a result, the supply of output in accordance with 12.4 million tons, 60 tons of imports, 100 tons of old sugar carryout computing and consumption in accordance with the sales volume of 13.5 million tons, 70 tons of real income reserve calculation , by the end of the circulation of the crop season may be short the market 200,000 tons of sugar (1350 +70-1240-60-100). Put through the national savings gap or more on imports to make up for, and thus constitute a long-term sugar price support.
Instead of sugar may increase market share
Starch Sugar, chemical sweeteners such as sugar and sugar substitute like the seesaw relationship between the two ends, inevitably the shift. Starch sugar, the sugar prices in 2008 as a low starch sugar is relatively high production costs were more more, sugar and starch company flank, leading to more sad days, an alternative has been weakened. But this year some changes here to do a very simple comparison. 7 months late last year, the spot price of sugar producing area of Liuzhou is only 3,000 yuan, while the Northeast was corn growing areas (IT, market) spot prices are still more than 1,600 yuan. Today Liuzhou sugar close to 3,800 yuan, up 25% year on year, corresponding to corn prices still remain at around 1,600 yuan. Can be expected, the current share price for the expansion of starch sugar is beneficial.
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